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Conformal Prediction: The Definitive Resource
A professionally curated list of awesome Conformal Prediction videos, tutorials, books, papers, PhD and MSc theses, articles and open-source libraries.
This page lists names, links and short descriptions. The original list on GitHub is the source and belongs to its authors.
Learn from the Experts — Book & Course by Dr. Valeriy Manokhin >Applied Conformal Prediction — Live Course on Maven
Learn from the Experts — Book & Course by Dr. Valeriy Manokhin >Applied Conformal Prediction — The Book
Applied Conformal Prediction — Pro Edition
Recommended The most comprehensive edition: extended chapters, advanced methods, and production-grade code.
Applied Conformal Prediction — Standard Edition
The core book covering regression, classification, time series, anomaly detection, and LLM uncertainty.
valeriy.ai
author's website with research, papers, and updates.
Conformal Prediction Tutorials
Conformal Prediction Tutorial
by Henrik Linusson (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Predicting with Confidence - Henrik Boström
by Henrik Boström (2016) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Henrik Linusson: Conformal Prediction
by Henrik Linusson (2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
A Tutorial on Conformal Prediction
by Glenn Shafer and Vladimir Vovk (2008) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Tutorial on Venn-ABERS prediction
by Paolo Toccaceli (Royal Holloway, UK, 2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
An Introduction to Conformal Prediction
by Henrik Linusson (2017) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal prediction A Tiny Tutorial on Predicting with Confidence
by Henrik Linusson and Ulf Johansson (2014) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
A Tutorial on Conformal Predictive Distributions
by Paolo Toccaceli (2020) 🔥🔥🔥
Venn Predictors Tutorial
by Ulf Johansson, Cecilia Sönströd, Tuve Löfström, and Henrik Boström (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Ulf Johansson: Venn Predictors
by Ulf Johansson (2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction and Venn Predictors A Tutorial on Predicting with Confidence
by Ulf Johansson, Henrik Linusson, Tuve Löfström, Henrik Boström, Alex Gammerman (2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification
by Anastasios N. Angelopoulos and Stephen Bates (2021) Video Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Introduction to Conformal Prediction
by Vineeth N Balasubramanian (Indian Institue of Technology, Hyderabad, 2015)
Conformal Prediction in Spark
by Marco Capuccini (Uppsala University, 2017)
Uncertainty estimation in NLP
by Tal Schuster, Adam Fisch (MIT, USC, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Inference Tutorial
by Ben Kompa (2020)
Uncertainty Quantification (1): Enter Conformal Predictors
by Mahdi Torabi Rad (2023) 🔥🔥🔥
Uncertainty Quantification (2): Full Conformal Predictors
by Mahdi Torabi Rad (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Uncertainty Quantification (3): From Full to Split Conformal Methods
by Mahdi Torabi Rad (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction in Genomics
by BiolApps (2023)
Conformal Prediction: A Visual Introduction
in VISxAI by Mihir Agarwal, Lalit Chandra Routhu, Zeel B Patel and Nipun Batra (IIT Gandhinagar, IIT Patna, 2023)
Conformal Predictions from Scratch in Numpy
by Jones Wacker (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
A Tutorial on Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification Using Conformal Prediction (psychology)
by Tim Kaiser and Philipp Herzog (Freie Universität Berlin, RPTU University Kaiserslautern-Landau, Germany, 2025).
Conformal Prediction Courses
Uncertain: Modern topics in uncertainty estimation
YouTube Course notes by Aaron Roth (University of Pennsylvania, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Topics in Modern Statistical Learning
by Edgar Dobriban (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Theory of Statistics
Stanford Statistics course by Prof Emmanuel Candes (2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
36-708 Statistical Methods for Machine Learning
Carnegie-Mellon course by Prof Larry Wasserman (2022)
Course on Conformal Prediction
by Christoph Molnar (2022)
Conformal Prediction - Advanced Topics in Statistical Learning, Spring 2023
by Ryan Tibshirani (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Methods for Efficient and Reliable Deep Learning
by Adam, Fisch (MIT, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Books on Conformal Prediction
Applied Conformal Prediction — Pro Edition
Recommended The most comprehensive edition: extended chapters, advanced methods, and production-grade code.
Applied Conformal Prediction — Standard Edition
The core book covering regression, classification, time series, anomaly detection, and LLM uncertainty.
Algorithmic Learning in a Random World
by Vladimir Vovk, Alex Gammerman, and Glenn Shafer (2022, Second edition). 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Great theory-based book, very math heavy, no applications, no code.
Conformal Prediction for Reliable Machine Learning
by Vineeth Balasubramanian, Shen-Shyang Ho, Vladimir Vovk (2014). Older book, largely out of date, no code.
Articles on Conformal Prediction
Measuring Models' Uncertainty: Conformal Prediction
by Leo Dreyfus-Schmidt (Dataiku, 2020). 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction for Neural Regression Model
by Pranab Ghosh (2021). 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
How to Handle Uncertainty in Forecasts
by Michael Berk (2021)
How to Add Uncertainty Estimation to your Models with Conformal Prediction
by Zachary Warnes (2021)
nonconformist: An easy way to estimate prediction intervals
by Maria Jesus Ugarte (2021).
Detecting Weird Data: Conformal Anomaly Detection
by Matthew Burruss (2020).
How to Predict Risk-Proportional Intervals with Conformal Quantile Regression
by Samuele Mazzanti (2022). 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
How to Detect Anomalies — state-of-the-art methods using Conformal Prediction
by Valery Manokhin (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
How to calibrate your classifier in an intelligent way
by Valery Manokhin (2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
How to predict full probability distribution using machine learning Conformal Predictive Distributions
by Valery Manokhin (2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
How to predict quantiles in a more intelligent way (or ‘Bye-bye quantile regression, hello Conformal Quantile Regression
by Valery Manokhin (2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction in Julia, Part I - Introduction
by Patrick Altmeyer (2022)
How to Conformalize a Deep Image Classifier
by Patrick Altmeyer (2022)
Time Series Forecasting with Conformal Prediction Intervals: Scikit-Learn is All you Need
by Marco Cerliani (2022)
Conformal Prediction in Julia, Part III - Prediction intervals for any regression model
by Patrick Altmeyer (2022)
Probabilistic Forecasting with Conformal Prediction and NeuralProphet
by Valery Manokhin (2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
TQA: Creating Valid Prediction Intervals for Cross-sectional Time Series Regression
by Zhen Lin (UIUC, NeurIPS’22 paper) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Multi-horizon Probabilistic Forecasting with Conformal Prediction and NeuralProphet
by Valery Manokhin TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Putting clear bounds on uncertainty
(MIT, 2023)
Conformal prediction theory explained
by Artem Ryasik (2023)
Easy Distribution-Free Conformal Intervals for Time Series
by Michael Keith (2023)
Another (Conformal) Way to Predict Probability Distributions
by Harrison Hoffman (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction for Regression
(using KNIME) by Artem Ryasik (2023)
Dynamic Conformal Intervals for any Time Series Model
by Michael Keith (2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Hitting Time Forecasting: The Other Way for Time Series Probabilistic Forecasting
by Marco Cerliani (2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Jackknife+ — a Swiss knife of Conformal Prediction for regression
by Valeriy Manokhin (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
How to use Conformal Prediction
by Yannick Kälber (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Model Diagnostics: Prediction Uncertainty
by PiML team, Wells Fargo (2023).
Make any predictor uncertainty-aware via conformal prediction
by Lorenzo Maggi (2023)
Conformal predictive systems - A hands-on codeless example with KNIME
by Artem Ryasik (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal prediction for classification - A hands-on codeless example with KNIME
by Artem Ryasik (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformalized quantile regression
by Lorenzo Maggi (2024)
Leveraging conformal prediction in Python to accelerate the renewable energy transition
by Inge van den Ende (2024)
Fifty (four, actually) shades of conformal prediction
by Lorenzo Maggi (2024)
Use case adapted prediction intervals by means of conformal predictions and a custom non conformity score
by Arnaud Capitaine (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Prediction Intervals using Conformalized Quantile Regression
by Vincent Wauters (2024).
Conformalized Quantile Regression for Time Series Probabilistic Forecasting
by Chris Kuo (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Uncertainty Quantification and Why You Should Care
by Jonte Dancker (2024)
Probabilistic forecasting I: Temperature
by Stephane Degeye (2024)
Predict CO2 emissions by vehicles with Conformal Prediction
by Claudio Giorgio Giancaterino (2024)
Exploring Adaptive and Weighted Conformal Prediction Methods in the Presence of Covariate Shift
by Peter Tettey Yamak (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Embracing Uncertainty with Conformal Prediction
by Robbert van Kortenhof (2024)
Tidymodels and conformal prediction
by Prasanna Bhogale (2024)
Basics of conformal prediction in time series data
by Prasanna Bhogale (2024)
Conformal Prediction Videos and Talks
Treatment of Uncertainty in the Foundations of Probability
by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2017)
Large-Scale Probabilistic Prediction With and Without Validity Guarantees
by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, NeurIPS 2015) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal testing in a binary model situation
by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021)
Protected probabilistic classification
by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021)
Retrain or not retrain: conformal test martingales for change-point detection
by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
A Tutorial on Conformal Prediction
by Anastasios Angelopoulos and Stephen Bates (Berkeley, ICML 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Steps Toward Trustworthy Machine Learning
by Tom Dietterich (2021)
A Tutorial on Conformal Predictive Distributions
by Paolo Toccaceli (2020) 🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction Tutorial
by Henrik Linusson (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Henrik Linusson: Conformal Prediction
by Henrik Linusson (2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Predicting with Confidence - Henrik Boström
by Henrik Boström (2016) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
How to increase certainty in predictive modeling
by Emmanuel Candes (Stanford, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Recent Progress in Predictive Inference
by Emmanuel Candes (Stanford, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Some recent progress in predictive inference" (Stanford) @ MAD+
by Emmanuel Candes (Stanford, 2020)
Conformal Prediction in 2020
by Emmanuel Candes (Stanford, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Assumption-free prediction intervals for black-box regression algorithms
by Aaditya Ramdas (Carnegie Mellon, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Maria Navarro: Quantifying uncertainty in Machine Learning predictions | PyData London 2019
by Maria Navarro (2019)
Conformal Prediction: Enhanced Method for Understanding the Prediction Quality
by Artem Ryasik and Greg Landrum
Venn Predictors Tutorial
by Ulf Johansson, Cecilia Sönströd, Tuve Löfström, and Henrik Boström (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Mondrian conformal predictive distributions
by Henrik Boström, Ulf Johansson, and Tuwe Löfström (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Calibrating Multi-Class Models
by Ulf Johansson, Tuwe Löfström, and Henrik Boström (2021)
Conformal prediction in Orange
by Tomaž Hočevar and Blaž Zupan (2021)
Distribution-Free, Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets
by Anastasios Angelopoulos Berkeley, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Calibration
by Aaditya Ramdas (Carnegie Mellon, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Reliable Diagnostics by Conformal Predictors
by Alexander Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2015)
Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Time-to-event Outcomes
by Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2021)
Algo Hour – Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment Effect
by Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2021)
Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment effects(Stanford)
by Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2021)
Approximation to object conditional validity with inductive conformal predictors
by Anthony Bellotti (University of Nottingham Ningbo, China, 2021)
Ulf Johansson: Venn Predictors
by Ulf Johansson (Jönköping University, Sweden, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Transformer-based conformal predictors for paraphrase detection
by Patrizio Giavannotti and Prof. Alexander Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021)
Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment Effects
by Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2020)
Model-Free Predictive Inference
by Larry Wasserman (Carnegie Mellon, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Shapley-value based inductive conformal prediction
by William Lopez Jaramillo (2021)
Conformal Training: Learning Optimal Conformal Classifiers | DeepMind
by David Stutz (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Distribution-Free, Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets
by Anastasios Angelopoulos (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Assumption-Free, High-Dimensional Inference
by Larry Wasserman (2016)
Neural Predictive Monitoring under Partial Observability
by Francesca Cairolli (2021)
Conformalized Kernel Ridge Regression and Its Efficiency
by Evgeny Burnaev (Skolkovo, Russia, 2015)
Fast conformal classification using influence functions
by Giovanni Cherubin (Alan Turing Institute, UK, 2021)
Valid inferential models and conformal prediction
by Ryan Martin (North Carolina State University, USA, 2021)
Mondrian conformal predictive distributions
by Henrik Boström, Ulf Johansson and Tuwe Löfström (KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Evaluation of updating strategies for conformal predictive systems in the presence of extreme events
by Hugo Werner, Lars Carlsson, Ernst Ahlberg and and Henrik Boström (KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden, 2021)
Ulf Johansson: Venn Predictors
by Ulf Johansson (2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Class-wise confidence for debt prediction in real estate management
by Soundouss Messoudi (2021)
How Nonconformity Functions and Difficulty of Datasets Impact the Efficiency of Conformal Classifiers
by Marharyta Aleksandrova (2021)
Nested conformal prediction and quantile out-of-bag ensemble methods
by Chirag Gupta (Carnegie Mellon, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Panel with Michael I. Jordan, Vladimir Vovk, and Larry Wasserman, moderated by Aaditya Ramdas
by Vladimir Vovk, Larry Wasserman, Michael I. Jordan, Aaditya Ramdas, ICML 2021 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Black-box uncertainty - Anastasios Angelopoulos
by Anastasios Angelopoulos (Berkeley, USA, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
P.C. Mahalanobis Memorial Lectures 2020-21
by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021)
Recent progress in predictive inference
by Emmanuel Candes, Stanford University (2022)
Conformalized Survival Analysis with Adaptive Cutoffs
by Rina Foygel Barber, Zhimei Ren, Yu Gui and Rohan Hore, University of Chicago (2022)
Calibrating probabilistic hierarchical forecasts with conformal predictions
by Daan Ferdinandusse (University of Amsterdam, 2022)
Michael I. Jordan on Conformal Prediction
by Michael I. Jordan (Berkeley, 2022)
Distribution-free Prediction: Exchangeability and Beyond
by Rina Foygel Barber (University of Chicago, 2022)
Purdue Statistics Theme Seminar, Conformal Prediction in 2022
by Emmanuel Candes (Stanford, 2022)
WILL MY ROBOT ACHIEVE MY GOALS? PREDICTING THE PROBABILITY THAT AN MDP POLICY REACHES A USER-SPECIFIED BEHAVIOR TARGET
by Alexander Guyer and Thomas G. Dietterich (University of Oregon, 2022)
Robust and Equitable Uncertainty Estimation
by Aaron Roth(2022)
Conformal prediction under feedback covariate shift for biomolecular design
by Clara Wong-Fannjiang (Berkeley, 2022)
Conformal prediction in 2022
invited talk by Emmanuel Candes at NeurIPS2022 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Broadening the Scope of Conformal Inference
by Michael I. Jordan (University of Berkeley, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
CLIMB Evergreen talk with Emmanuel Candès: Conformal Inference when Data is not Exchangeable
TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Emmanuel Candes - A Taste of Conformal Prediction
by Emmanuel Candes (2023)
Uncertainty Quantification (2): Full Conformal Predictors
by Mahdi Torabi Rad (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Max Mergenthaler and Fede Garza - Quantifying Uncertainty in Time Series Forecasting
by Max Mergenthaler and Fede Garza (Nixtla, 2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Uncertainty Quantification with the Fortuna library by Gianluca Detommaso (AWS)
by Gianluca Detommaso (Amazon, 2023)
Max Kuhn - The Post-Modeling Model to Fix the Model
by Max Kuhn (2023)🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
ISDFS Talk: Robots that ask for help: Conformal Prediction for LLM Planners
by Anirudha Majumdar (Princeton/DeepMind) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥(2023)
Robots That Ask For Help: Uncertainty Alignment for Large Language Model Planners
by Allen Z Ren (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Three Easy Steps to Understand Conformal Prediction (CP), Conformity Score, Python Implementation
by (Dr. Data Science 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction for Time Series with Modern Hopfield Networks
by Andreas Auer TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Introducing Sequential Predictive Conformal Inference (SPCI)
by Chen Xu (2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction Intervals: Empowering Executives for Informed Decision
by Matthew Kolakowski (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Inference with Tidymodels - posit::conf(2023)
by Max Kuhn (2023)
ACon^2: Adaptive Conformal Consensus for Provable Blockchain Oracles
by Sangdon Park (2023)
Leveraging conformal prediction for calibrated probabilistic time series forecast
by Inge van den Ende (Dexter Energy, 2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Uncertainty Quantification over Graph with Conformalized Graph Neural Networks
by Kexin Huang (Stanford, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Selection by Prediction with Conformal p-values
by Ying Jin (Stanford, 2023)
Trustworthy Retrieval Augmented Chatbots Utilizing Conformal Predictors
by Shuo Li (UPenn, 2023).
An introduction to conformal prediction - PyLadies Amsterdam
by Inge van den Ende (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥code
Analítica acelerada con Shapelets y conformal prediction, ~48 mins onwards
by Carl McBride Ellis (2024) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Quantile Estimation in Economics
by Martin Fankhauser (Bocconi, 2024)
Big Data: 4th lecture (uncertainty in learning, big data for NLP)
by Prof. Patrick Glauner (2024)
Unveiling Precision: A Novel ML Framework for Accurate Probability Estimates by Abel and Edgar
, not CP per se, showing the critical importance of calibration in finance (2024)
Autonomy Talks - Somil Bansal: Safety Assurances for Learning-Enabled Autonomous Systems
by Somil Bansal (USC, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Error Embraced: Making Trustworthy Scientific Decisions with Imperfect Predictions
by Clara Wong-fannjiang (Genentech) (2024)
Conformalized Interval Arithmetic with Symmetric Calibration
by Rui Luo, Zhixin Zhou (City University of Hong Kong, 2024)
Robust Yet Efficient Conformal Prediction Sets
by Soroush H. Zargarbash (2024)
Applications of Conformal Prediction in Medicine | CGSI 2024
by Ahmed Alaa (2024)
Mojtaba Farmanbar - Uncertainty quantification: How much can you trust your machine learning model?
by Mojtaba Farmanbar (2024)
Understanding, Generating, and Evaluating Prediction Intervals - posit conf 2024
by Bryan Shalloway (2024)
Conformal Prediction: uncertainty quantification to humanise models
by Vincenzo Ventriglia (2025) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction Presentation Slides
Machine Learning for Probabilistic Prediction, Seattle Artificial Intelligence Workshops Meetup
by Valery Manokhin, 2023 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Adaptive Conformal Anomaly Detection for Time-series
by Evgeny Burnaev, Alexander Bernstein, Vlad Ishimtsev and Ivan Nazarov (Skoltech, Moscow, Russia, 2017)
Nonparametric predictive distributions based on conformal prediction
by Vladimir Vovk, Jieli Shen, Valery Manokhin, Min-ge Xie, Ilia Nouretdinov and Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, University of London Rutgers University, 2017)
What Can Conformal Inference Offer to Statistics?
by Lihua Lei, Stanford University
Conformal Regressors and Predictive Systems – a Gentle Introduction
by Henrik Bostroem (KTH, Sweden, 2022)
Applications of Conformal Predictors
by Ernst Ahlberg and Lars Carlsson (Stena Line, 2022)
crepes: a Python Package for Conformal Regressors and Predictive Systems
by Henrik Bostroem (KTH, Sweden, 2022)
Assessing Explanation Quality by Venn Prediction
by Amr Alkhatib, Henrik Boström and Ulf Johansson (2022)
Well-Calibrated Rule Extractors
by Ulf Johansson, Tuwe Löfström, Niclas Ståhl (2022)
Reinforcement Learning Prediction Intervals with Guaranteed Fidelity
by Thomas Dietterich (University of Oregon, 2022)
Conformal Prediction beyond exchangeability
by Rina Foygel Barber (University of Chicago, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Split conformal prediction for dependant data
by Roberto I. Oliveira, Paulo Orenstein, Thiago Ramos and João Vitor Romano (2022)
Conformal prediction of small-molecule drug resistance in cancer cell lines
by Saiveth Hernandez-Hernandez, Sachin Vishwakarma and Pedro Ballester
Sequential Predictive Conformal Inference for Time Series
by Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Copula Conformal Prediction for Multi-step Time Series Forecasting
by Sophia Sun, Rose Yu (University of California, San Diego, 2022)
Uncertainty estimation in NLP
by Tal Schuster, Adam Fisch (MIT, USC, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction: an Introduction
by Leo Andeol (2022)
In 3 lists
Machine Learning for Probabilistic Prediction
by Valery Manokhin (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Inference with Tidymodels
by Max Kuhn (posit conference 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Graceful handling of large imbalanced datasets using Conformal Prediction
by Ulf Norinder and Fredrik Svensson 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformalized Quantile Regression
by Yaniv Romano, Evan Patterson, Emmanuel J. Candès (Stanford, 2019)
Leveraging Conformal Prediction for Calibrated Probabilistic Time Series Forecasts to Accelerate the Renewable Energy…
by Inge van den Ende (Dexter Energy, 2023). TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Application of Conformal Inference in High Energy Physics
by Jiri Franc (CTU Prague,Czech Republic)
Conformal Prediction Libraries in Python
Python implementation of binary and multi-class Venn-ABERS calibration
by Ivan Petej (2023) [Paper] 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Tights - A scikit-learn meta-estimator that adds conformal prediction of coherent quantiles and intervals to…
by Laurent Sorber (Radix AI) (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Puncc (Predictive uncertainty calibration and conformalization)
paper slides 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
ConformaSight Global Explainer Package 📦
by Fatıma Rabia Yapıcıoğlu (2025)
Nixtla mlforecast
TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Nixtla statsforecast
TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Impact
by Tyler Blume (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 10.Nonconformist by Henrik Linusson (2015) 🚨 The library does not seem to be actively maintained
Venn-ABERS Predictor
by Paolo Toccaceli (2019) Paper 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformalized Quantile Regression
by Yaniv Romano (2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Orange3 Conformal Prediction
Multi-class-probabilistic-classification using Venn-ABERS (Conformal) prediction by Valery Manokhin (Royal Holloway, 2022)
Copula Conformal Multi Target Regression
by Soundouss Messoudi (2021)
Conformalized density- and distance-based anomaly detection in time-series data (KNN-CAD)
by Evgeny Burnaev, Vladislav Ishimtsev (2016). Top #3 winning solution in Numenta competition 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal time-series forecasting
by Kamile ̇ Stankeviciute (Cambridge, NeurIPS 2021) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
EnbPI
by Chen Xu (2021) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Paper
Conformal learning from scratch
by Marharyta Aleksandrova (2021)
Ensemble Conformalized Quantile Regression for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting
Vilde Jensen, Filippo Maria Bianchi and Stian Norman Anfinsen (2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformalized Online Learning: Online Calibration Without a Holdout Set
by Shai Feldman, Stephen Bates and Yaniv Romano (2022). TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
PySloth - Python package for Probabilistic Prediction
by Valery Manokhin 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction in KNIME
by Tuwe Löfström and Redfield AB (2022)
Nonconformist
by Henrik Linusson (2015) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
SKTime
by Franz Kiraly (2022)
NeuralProphet
(2022) 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction: an Introduction
by Leo Andeol (2022)
In 3 lists
TorchUQ
(2022)
https://github.com/mikekeith52/scalecast
TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Predictions from Scratch in Numpy
by Jones Wacker (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction for Digital Soil Mapping
by Nafiseh Kakhani (2023)
conformal-prediction-jan2024 - PyLadies Amsterdam
by Inge van den Ende (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
MFLES - Gradient Boosted Decomposition for time series forecasting
by Tyler Blume (2024) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
confopt - A Library for Conformal Hyperparameter Tuning
by Ricardo Doyle (2024) paper 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction Libraries in R
pintervals - Model agnostic prediction intervals
paper by David Randahl, Anders Hjort, Jonathan P. Williams (2026) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction ih tidymodels
by Max Kuhn (Posit/RStudio, 2023) video 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Modeltime
(2023) by Matt Dancho (Business Science, 2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal prediction for 80+ classes of R models with the marginaleffects package
by Vincent Arel-Bundock (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
conformalForecast
TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (2024)
AdaptiveConformal
(2023) paper 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Inference R Project
maintained by Ryan Tibshirani (2016) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Prediction Bands
by Rafael Izbicki and Benjamin LeRoy (2019)
Online Time Series Anomaly Detectors
by Alaine Iturria, 2021 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
piRF - Prediction Intervals for Random Forests
by Chancellor Johnstone and Haozhe Zhang (2019)
conformalClassification: Transductive and Inductive Conformal Predictions for Classification Problems
by Niharika Gauraha and Ola Spjuth (2019)
ClusTorus: An R Package for Prediction and Clustering on the Torus by Conformal Prediction
by Seungki Hong and Sungkyu Jung (2022)
conformal glm - conformal prediction for generalized linear regression models
by Daniel Eck (2019)
Conformal Prediction Libraries in Julia
ConformalPrediction.jl
by Patrick Altmeyer (2022) Article - Conformal Prediction in Julia, Part I - Introduction Article - Conformal Prediction in Julia, Part II - How to conformalize a deep image classifier Article - Conformal Prediction in Julia, Part III - Prediction intervals for any regression model
RandomForest
by Henrik Boström (2017) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
PostForecasts.jl
by Arkadiusz Lipiecki and Rafal Weron (2025) paper paper
Conformal Prediction in Other Languages
Scala-CP
by Marco Capuccini (2017)' 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (see tutorial section 'Conformal Prediction in Spark')
AI Platforms Using Conformal Prediction
Conformal Prediction in Knime
Presentation 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
AWS Fortuna
by Amazon, (2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction on Kaggle
Classifier calibration using Venn-ABERS
by Carl McBride Ellis (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
CPB: The Crucial Calibration Set
by L. Elaine Dazzio (2025)
Simplest Conformal Prediction Example
by L. Elaine Dazzio (2025)
Conformal Prediction Papers
Classifier Calibration at Scale: An Empirical Study of Model-Agnostic Post-Hoc Methods
by Valeriy Manokhin and Daniel Grønhaug (2026) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
The Manokhin Probability Matrix: A Diagnostic Framework for Classifier Probability Quality
by Valeriy Manokhin (2026) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
A Review and Comparative Analysis of Univariate Conformal Regression Methods
by Jie Bao, Nicolò Colombo, Valeriy Manokhin, Suqun Cao, Rui Luo (COPA 2025) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Cross-conformal predictive distributions
by Vladimir Vovk, Ilia Nouretdinov, Valeriy Manokhin and Alexander Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2018) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Nonparametric predictive distributions based on conformal prediction
by Vladimir Vovk, Jieli Shen, Valeriy Manokhin and Min-ge Xie (Royal Holloway, UK / Rutgers, USA, 2018) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal predictive distributions with kernels
by Vladimir Vovk, Ilia Nouretdinov, Valeriy Manokhin, Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2017) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Multi-class probabilistic classification using inductive and cross Venn–Abers predictors
by Valeriy Manokhin (Royal Holloway, UK, 2017) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Computationally efficient versions of conformal predictive distributions
by Vladimir Vovk, Ivan Petej, Ilia Nouretdinov, Valeriy Manokhin, Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Introducing Conformal Prediction in Predictive Modeling. A Transparent and Flexible Alternative to Applicability…
by Ulf Norinder, Lars Carlsson, Scott Boyer, and Martin Eklund (2014)
Uncertainty Sets for Image Classifiers using Conformal Prediction
by Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stephen Bates, Jitendra Malik, & Michael I. Jordan (Berkeley, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction Under Covariate Shift
by Ryan Tibshirani, Rina Foygel Barber, Emmanuel Candes, Aaditya Ramdas (Carnegie Mellon, Stanford, Chicago, 2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Regression Conformal Prediction with Nearest Neighbours
by Harris Papadopoulos, Vladimir Vovk and Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2014) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Nested conformal prediction and quantile out-of-bag ensemble methods
by Chirag Gupta, Arun Kuchibhotla and Aaditya Ramdas (Carnegie Mellon, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Criteria of Efficiency for Conformal Prediction
by Vladimir Vovk, Ilia Nouretdinov, Valentina Fedorova, Ivan Petej, and Alex Gammerman ((Royal Holloway, UK, 2016)
Conformal Prediction for Simulation Models
by Benjamin LeRoy and Chad Schafer (Carnegie Mellon, 2021)
Distribution-free, risk-controlling prediction sets
Stephen Bates, Anastasios Angelopoulos, Lihua Lei, Jitendra Malik and Michael I Jordan (Berkeley, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conditional calibration for false discovery rate control under dependence
by William Fithian and Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2021)
Regression conformal prediction with random forests
by Ulf Johansson, Henrik Boström, Tuve Löfström and Henrik Linusson (2014)
A conformal prediction approach to explore functional data
by Jing Lei, Alessandro Rinaldo, Larry Wasserman (Carnegie Mellon, 2013)
An electronic nose-based assistive diagnostic prototype for lung cancer detection with conformal prediction
by Xianghao Zhana,c, Zhan Wanga, Meng Yangb, Zhiyuan Luod, You Wanga, Guang Li (2020)
Predicting the Rate of Skin Penetration Using an Aggregated Conformal Prediction Framework
by Martin Lindh, A. Karlén, Ulf Norinder (2017)
The application of conformal prediction to the drug discovery process
by Martin Eklund, Ulf Norinder, Scott Boyer & Lars Carlsson (2014) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Anomaly Detection of Trajectories with Kernel Density Estimation by Conformal Prediction
by James Smith, Ilia Nouretdinov, Rachel Craddock, Charles Offer, and Alexander Gammerman (2009)
Conformal prediction interval estimation and applications to day-ahead and intraday power markets
by Christopher Kath, Florian Ziel (2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Anomaly Detection of Trajectories with Kernel Density Estimation by Conformal Prediction
by James Smith, Ilia Nouretdinov, Rachel Craddock, Charles Offer, Alexander Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2014)
Exchangeability, Conformal Prediction, and Rank Tests
by Arun Kuchibhotla (Carnegie Mellon, 2021)
Conformal prediction with localization
by Leying Guan (Yale, 2020)
Predicting skin sensitizers with confidence - Using conformal prediction to determine applicability domain of GARD
by Andy Forreryd, Ulf Norinder, Tim Lindberg, Malin Lindstedt (2018)
Binary classification of imbalanced datasets using conformal prediction
by Ulf Norinder, Scott Boyer (2017)
Discretized conformal prediction for efficient distribution-free inference
by Wenyu Chen, Kelli-Jean Chun, and Rina Foygel Barber (2017)
Validity, consonant plausibility measures, and conformal prediction
by Leonardo Cella. and Ryan Martin (2021)
Conformal Prediction Classification of a Large Data Set of Environmental Chemicals from ToxCast and Tox21 Estrogen…
by Ulf Norinder, Scott Boyer (2016)
Conformal prediction to define applicability domain – A case study on predicting ER and AR binding
by U. Norinder, A. Rybacka, P.Andersson (2016)
Conformal prediction of biological activity of chemical compounds
by Paolo Toccaceli, Ilia Nouretdinov, Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2017) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Introducing conformal prediction in predictive modeling for regulatory purposes. A transparent and flexible…
by Ulf Norinder, Lars Carlsson, Scott Boyer, Martin Eklund (2015)
Aggregated Conformal Prediction
by Lars CarlssonMartin EklundUlf Norinder (2014)
Interpretation of Conformal Prediction Classification Models
by Ernst Ahlberg, Ola Spjuth, Catrin Hasselgren, Lars Carlsson (2015)
Cross-Conformal Prediction with Ridge Regression
by Harris Papadopoulos (2015)
Sparse conformal prediction for dissimilarity data
by Frank-Michael Schleif, Xibin Zhu and Barbara Hammer (2015)
Effective utilization of data in inductive conformal prediction using ensembles of neural networks
by Tuve Löfström, Ulf Johansson and Henrik Boström (2013)
Beyond the Basic Conformal Prediction Framework
by Vladimir Vovk (2014)
Predicting with confidence: Using conformal prediction in drug discovery
by Jonathan Alvarsson, Staffan Arvidsson McShane, Ulf Norinder, Ola Spjuth (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Inductive conformal prediction for silent speech recognition
by Ming Zhang, You Wang, Zhang Wei, Meng Yang, Zhiyuan Luo, Guang Li (2020)
Large scale comparison of QSAR and conformal prediction methods and their applications in drug discovery
by Nicolas Bosc, Francis Atkinson, Eloy Felix, Anna Gaulton, Anne Hersey and Andrew R. Leach (2019)
Deep Conformal Prediction for Robust Models
by Soundouss Messoudi, Sylvain Rousseau and Sébastien Destercke (2020)
Strong validity, consonance, and conformal prediction
by Leonardo Cella and Ryan Martin (2020)
Skin Doctor CP: Conformal Prediction of the Skin Sensitization Potential of Small Organic Molecules
by Anke Wilm, U. Norinder, M. Agea, Christina de Bruyn Kops, Conrad Stork, J. Kühnl, J. Kirchmair (2020)
Conformal prediction based active learning by linear regression optimization
by Sergio Matiz, Kenneth E.Barner (2020)
Conformal prediction intervals for the individual treatment effect
by Danijel Kivaranovic, Robin Ristl, Martin Poschb, Hannes Leeb (2020)
Nearest neighbor based conformal prediction
by László Györfi and Harro Walk (2020)
Concepts and Applications of Conformal Prediction in Computational Drug Discovery
by Isidro Cortés-Ciriano and Andreas Bender (2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Predicting Ames Mutagenicity Using Conformal Prediction in the Ames/QSAR International Challenge Project
by Ulf Norinder, Ernst Ahlberg, Lars Carlsson (2018)
Nested Conformal Prediction and the Generalized Jackknife
by Arun Kuchibhotla and Aaditya Ramdas (Carnegie Mellon, 2019)
Predictive inference with the jackknife+
by Rina Foygel Barber, Emmanuel Candès, Aaditya Ramdas, and Ryan Tibshirani (2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
A Distribution-Free Test of Covariate Shift Using Conformal Prediction
by Xiaoyu Hu and Jing Lei (Peking Univerity, China and Carnegie Mellon, USA, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Multitask Modeling with Confidence Using Matrix Factorization and Conformal Prediction
by Ulf Norinder, Fredrik Svensson
Conformal prediction of HDAC inhibitors
by U. Norinder, J.J.Navaka, E. Lopez-Lopez, D. Mucs & J.L. Medina-Franco (2019)
Computing Full Conformal Prediction Set with Approximate Homotopy
by Eugene Ndiaye, Ichiro Takeuchi (2019)
Conformal Prediction Based on Raman Spectra for the Classification of Chinese Liquors
by Jiao Gu, Huaibo Liu, Chaoqun Ma, Lei Li, Chun Zhu, Christ Glorieux, Guoqing Chen (2019)
Efficient and minimal length parametric conformal prediction regions
by Daniel Eck and Forrest Crawford (2019)
Conformal Prediction for Students' Grades in a Course Recommender System
by Raphael Morsomme and Evgueni Smirnov (2019)
Efficient iterative virtual screening with Apache Spark and conformal prediction
by Laeeq Ahmed, Valentin Georgiev, Marco Capuccini, Salman Toor, Wesley Schaal, Erwin Laure and Ola Spjuth (2018)
Predicting Off-Target Binding Profiles With Confidence Using Conformal Prediction
by Samuel Lampa, Jonathan Alvarsson, Staffan Arvidsson Mc Shane, Arvid Berg, Ernst Ahlberg, Ola Spjuth (2018)
Maximizing gain in high-throughput screening using conformal prediction
by Fredrik Svensson, Avid M. Afzal1, Ulf Norinder and Andreas Bender (2018)
Conformalized Survival Analysis
by Emmanuel Candès, Lihua Lei and Zhimei Ren (2021) R-Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Random Forest Prediction Intervals
by Haozhe Zhang†, Joshua Zimmerman†, Dan Nettleton† and Daniel J. Nordman† (Iowa State University, USA, 2019)
Conformal Training: Learning Optimal Conformal Classifiers | DeepMind
by David Stutz (DeepMind), Krishnamurthy Dvijotham, Ali Taylan Cemgil and Arnaud Doucet (2021)
Comparing the Bayes and typicalness frameworks
by Thomas Melluish, Craig Saunders, Ilia Nouretdinov, and Volodya Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2001). 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Large-scale probabilistic predictors with and without guarantees of validity
by Vladimir Vovk, Ivan Petej, and Valentina Fedorova (Royal Holloway, Yandex, NeurIPS) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Inductive conformal prediction for silent speech recognition
by Ming Zhang, You Wang, Wei Zhang, Meng Yang, Zhiyuan Luo and Guang Li (2020)
Valid prediction intervals for regression problems
by Nicolas Dewolf, Bernard De Baets, Willem Waegeman (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Application of conformal prediction interval estimations to market makers’ net positions
by Wojciech Wisniewski, David Lindsay, Sian Lindsay (Royal Holloway, UK, 2020)
Locally Valid and Discriminative Prediction Intervals for Deep Learning Models
by Zhen Lin, Shubhendu Trivedi, Jimeng Sun (NeurIPS, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Distribution-Free Federated Learning with Conformal Predictions
by Charles Lu and Jayashree Kalpathy-Cramer (2022)
Coreset-based Conformal Prediction for Large-scale Learning
by Nery Riquelme-Granada, Khuong Nguyen, Zhiyuan Luo (Royal Holloway, UK, 2019)
Fast probabilistic prediction for kernel SVM via enclosing balls
by Nery Riquelme-Granada, Khuong Nguyen, Zhiyuan Luo (Royal Holloway, UK, 2020)
Conformalized density- and distance-based anomaly detection in time-series data
by Evgeny Burnaev, Vladislav Ishimtsev (2016)
Predictive Inference with Weak Supervision
by Maxime Cauchois, Suyash Gupta, Alnur Ali and John Duchi (Stanford, 2022)
Conformal Prediction in Clinical Medical Sciences
by Janette Vazquez and Julio C. Facelli University of Utah, 2022)
Provably Improving Expert Predictions with Conformal Prediction
by Eleni Straitouri, Lequng Wang, Nastaran Okati and Manuel Gomez Rodriguez (Max Planck Institute for Software Systems / Cornell University, 2021).
Cover your cough: detection of respiratory events with confidence using a smartwatch
by Khuong An Nguyen, Zhiyuan Luo (Royal Holloway, 2019).
Predicting Amazon customer reviews with deep confidence using deep learning and conformal prediction
by Ulf Norinder and Petra Norinder (2022)
Conformal Prediction for the Design Problem
by Clara Fannjianga, Stephen Batesa, Anastasios Angelopoulosa, Jennifer Listgartena and Michael I. Jordan (Berkeley, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Image-to-Image Regression with Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification and Applications in Imaging
by Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Amit Kohli, Stephen Bates, Michael I. Jordan, Jitendra Malik, Thayer Alshaabi, Srigokul Upadhyayula, Yaniv Romano (Berkeley and Technion, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal predictive decision making
by Vladimir Vovk and Claus Bendtsen (2018).
The Lifecycle of a Statistical Model: Model Failure Detection, Identification, and Refitting
by Alnur Ali1, Maxime Cauchois and John C. Duchi (Stanford, 2022)
E-values: Calibration, combination, and applications
by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway) and Ruodu Wang (University of Waterloo) (2019)
Conformal Prediction Sets with Limited False Positives
by Adam Fisch, Tal Schuster, Tommi Jaakkola and Regina Barzilay code (MIT / Google Research, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Ensemble Conformalized Quantile Regression for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting
by Vilde Jensen, Filippo Maria Bianchi, Stian Norman Anfinsen (Arctic University of Norway, 2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Python Code
Prediction of Metabolic Transformations using Cross Venn-ABERS Predictors
by Staffan Arvidsson, Ola Spjuth, Lars Carlsson and Paolo Toccaceli (University of Uppsala, Astra Zeneca, Royal Holloway, 2017)
Probabilistic Prediction in scikit-learn
by Sweidan, Dirar and Ulf Johansson. 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformalized Online Learning: Online Calibration Without a Holdout Set
by Shai Feldman, Stephen Bates and Yaniv Romano (2022). TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Valid model-free spatial prediction
by Huiying Mao, Ryan Martin and Brian J Reich (2020)
Conformal Prediction with Temporal Quantile Adjustments
by Zhen Lin, Shubhendu Trivedi, Jimeng Sun (2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Calibration of Natural Language Understanding Models with Venn–ABERS Predictors
by Patrizio Giovannotti (Royal Holloway, UK, 2022) NLP
Conformal prediction interval for dynamic time-series
by Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2021) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal prediction set for time-series
by Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Time-Series Forecasting
by Kamile Stankeviciu te and Ahmed M. Alaa (2021) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Efficient Conformal Prediction via cascaded inference with expanded admission
by Adam Fisch, Tal Schuster, Tommi Jaakkola, Regina Barzilay (MIT 2021]. Python Code
Split Localized Conformal Prediction
by Xing Han, Ziyang Tang, Joydeep Ghosh, Qiang Liu (University of Texas, 2022). Python Code
Three Applications of Conformal Prediction for Rating Breast Density in Mammography
by Charles Lu, Ken Chang, Praveer Singh, Jayashree Kalpathy-Crame (2022)
Recommendation systems with distribution-free reliability guarantees
) by Anastasious Angelopolous, Karl Krauth, Stephen Bates, Yixin Wang and Michael I. Jordan (Berkeley 2022)
Model Agnostic Conformal Hyperparameter Optimization
by Riccardo Doyle (Spotify, 2022)
Improving Trustworthiness of AI Disease Severity Rating in Medical Imaging with Ordinal Conformal Prediction Sets
by Charles Lu, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stuart Pomerantz (2022) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Off-Policy Prediction in Contextual Bandits
by Muhammad Faaiz Taufiq, Jean-François Ton, Rob Cornish, Yee Whye Teh, Arnaud Doucet (Oxford, 2022) Video presentation
Semantic uncertainty intervals for disentangled latent space
by Swami Sankaranarayanan, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stephen Bates, Yaniv Romano, and Phillip Isola (Unversity of Berkeley, Technion, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
CODiT: Conformal Out-of-Distribution Detection in Time- Series Data
by Ramneet Kaur et.al., Unibersity of Pensylvania (2022). Code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Confident Adaptive Language Modeling
by Tal Schuster, Adam Fisch, Jai Gupta, Mostafa Dehghani, Dara Bahri, Vinh Q. Tran, Yi Tay, Donald Metzler (Google, MIT, 2022j
Probabilistic Conformal Prediction Using Conditional Random Samples
by Zhendong Wang, Ruijiang Gao, Mingzhang Yin, Mingyuan Zhou, David M. Blei (Columbia University, 2020) Code
A general framework for multi-step ahead adaptive conformal heteroscedastic time series forecasting
by Martim Sousa, Ana Maria Tome and Jose Moreira (University of Aveiro, 2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
A novel Deep Learning approach for one-step Conformal Prediction approximation
by Julia A. Meister, Khuong An Nguyen, Stelios Kapetanakis and Zhiyuan Luo (University of Brighton, UK, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Risk Control
by Anastasious Angelopolous, Stephen Bates, Adam Fisch, Lihua Lei and Tal Schuster (Berkeley, Stanford, MIT and Google Research, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
CD-split and HPD-split: Efficient Conformal Regions in High Dimensions
by Rafael Izbicki, Gilson Shimizu, Rafael B. Stern (San Carlos University Brazil, 2022) R code
Flexible distribution-free conditional predictive bands using density estimators
by Rafael Izbicki, Gilson Shimizu, and Rafael B. Stern (San Carlos University Brazil, 2020)
Split Conformal Prediction for Dependent Data
by Roberto I. Oliveira, Paulo Orenstein, Thiago Ramos, João Vitor Romano (IMPA, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2022)
Conformal Inference for Online Prediction with Arbitrary Distribution Shifts
by Isaac Gibbs and Emmanual Candes (Stanford, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Cough-based COVID-19 detection with audio quality clustering and confidence measure based learning
by Alice E. Ashby, Julia A. Meister, Khuong An Nguyen, Zhiyuan Luo, Werner Gentzk (University of Brighton, 2022)
Assessing Explanation Quality by Venn Prediction
by Amr Alkhatib, Henrik Bostroem and Ulf Johansson (2022)
Conformal prediction for hypersonic flight vehicle classification
by Zepu Xi, Xuebin Zhuang, Hongbo Chen (Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China, 2022) Slides
Robust Gas Demand Forecasting With Conformal Prediction
by Mouhcine Mendil, Luca Mossina, Marc Nabhan, Kevin Pasini (2022)
Conformal Prediciton beyond exchangeability
by Rina Foygel Barber, Emmanuel J. Candes, Aaditya Ramdas, Ryan J. Tibshirani (2022)
Split conformal prediction for dependant data
by Roberto I. Oliveira, Paulo Orenstein, Thiago Ramos and João Vitor Romano (2022)
Conformal prediction of small-molecule drug resistance in cancer cell lines
by Saiveth Hernandez-Hernandez, Sachin Vishwakarma and Pedro Ballester (2022)
Ellipsoidal conformal inference for Multi-Target Regression
by Soundouss Messoudi, Sebastien Destercke, Sylvain Rousseau (2022) Slides
Conformal Methods for Quantifying Uncertainty in Spatiotemporal Data: A Survey
by Sophia Sun (UCLA, 2022)
Deep Learning With Conformal Prediction for Hierarchical Analysis of Large-Scale Whole-Slide Tissue Images
by Håkan Wieslander , Philip J. Harrison, Gabriel Skogberg, Sonya Jackson, Markus Fridén, Johan Karlsson, Ola Spjuth, and Carolina Wählby (2021)
Audio–visual domain adaptation using conditional semi-supervised Generative Adversarial Networks
by Christos Athanasiadis, Enrique Hortal, Stylianos Asteriadis (2022)
Conformal Prediction is Robust to Label Noise
by Bat-Sheva Einbinder, Stephen Bates, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Asaf Gendler, Yaniv Romano (2022)
Copula Conformal Prediction for Multi-step Time Series Forecasting
TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Batch Multivalid Conformal Prediction
by Christopher Jung, Georgy Noarov, Ramya Ramalingam, Aaron Roth (Stanford, university of Pensylvania, 2022)
Selection by Prediction with Conformal p-values
by Ying Jin1 and Emmanuel J. Candes, (Stanford, 2022) Video code
Few-Shot Calibration of Set Predictors via Meta-Learned Cross-Validation-Based Conformal Prediction
by Sangwoo Park, Kfir M. Cohen, Osvaldo Simeone (2022)
Conformalized Fairness via Quantile Regression
by Meichen Liu, Lei Ding, Dengdeng Yu, Wulong Liu, Linglong Kong, Bei Jiang (University of Alberta, Noah Arc Huawei, 2022)
Test-time recalibration of conformal predictors under distribution shift based on unlabeled examples
by Fatih Furkan Yilmaz, and Reinhard Heckel (Rice University / University of Munuch, 2022)
Extending Conformal Prediction to Hidden Markov Models with Exact Validity via de Finetti's Theorem for Markov Chains
by Buddhika Nettasinghe, Samrat Chatterjee, Ramakrishna Tipireddy, Mahantesh Halappanavar (2022)
Predictive inference with feature conformal prediction
by Jiaye Teng, Chuan Wen, Dinghuai Zhang, Yoshua Bengio, Yang Gao, Yang Yuan (Tsinghua University, Mila - Quebec AI Institute, Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Shanghai Qi Zhi Institute, 2022) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Constructing Prediction Intervals with Neural Networks: An Empirical Evaluation of Bootstrapping and Conformal…
by Alex Contarino, Christine Schubert Kabban, Chancellor Johnstone and Fairul Mohd-Zaid (2022)
Spatio-Temporal Wildfire Prediction using Multi-Modal Data
by Chen Xu1, Yao Xie, Daniel A. Zuniga Vazquez, Rui Yao, and Feng Qiu (2022)
Calibrating AI models for few-shot demodulation via conformal prediction
Kfir M. Cohen1, Sangwoo Park, Osvaldo Simeone, Shlomo Shamai (2022)
Nonparametric Quantile Regression: Non-Crossing Constraints and Conformal Prediction
by Wenlu Tang, Guohao Shen, Yuanyuan Lin and Jian Huang (The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, 2022)
Safe Planning in Dynamic Environments using Conformal Prediction
by Lars Lindemann, Matthew Cleaveland∗, Gihyun Shim, and George J. Pappas (University of Pensylvania, 2022)
Conformal prediction under feedback covariate shift for biomolecular design
by Clara Fannjiang, Stephen Bates, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos,and Michael I. Jordan (2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Predictor for Improving Zero-shot Text Classification Efficiency
by Prafulla Kumar Choubey, Yu Bai, Chien-Sheng Wu, Wenhao Liu, Nazneen Rajani (Saleforce AI Research and Hugging Face, 2022)
Bayesian Optimization with Conformal Coverage Guarantees
by Samuel Stanton, Wesley Maddox and Andrew Gordon Wilson (Genentech, New York University, 2022) Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Measuring the Confidence of Traffic Forecasting Models: Techniques, Experimental Comparison and Guidelines towards…
by Ibai Lanaa, Ignacio (In ̃aki) Olabarrietaa, Javier Del Sera (2022)
Conformalized Fairness via Quantile Regression
by Meichen Liu, Lei Ding, Dengdeng Yu, Wulong Liu, Linglong Kong, Bei Jiang (University of Alberta, Huawei Noah’s Ark Lab Canada, NeurIPS 2022 paper) Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Engineering Uncertainty Representations to Monitor Distribution Shifts
by Thomas Bonnier and Benjamin Bosch (Société Générale, 2022)
CONffusion: CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR DIFFUSION MODELS
ProjectCode by Eliahu Horwitz, Yedid Hoshen (Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Semantic uncertainty intervals for disentangled latent spaces
by Swami Sankaranarayanan, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stephen Bates, Yaniv Romano, Phillip Isola (MIT, Berkeley, Technion, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
But are you sure? An uncertainty-aware perspective on explainable AI
by Charlie Marx, Youngsuk Park, Hilaf Hasson, Yuyang (Bernie) Wang, Stefano Ermon, Jun Huan (2022)
Calibrating AI Models for Wireless Communications via Conformal Prediction
by Kfir M. Cohen, Sangwoo Park, Osvaldo Simeone and Shlomo Shamai (2022)
Predicting Endocrine Disruption Using Conformal Prediction – A Prioritization Strategy to Identify Hazardous Chemicals…
by Maria Sapounidou, Ulf Norinder and Patrick Andersson (2022)
Conformal Loss-Controlling Prediction
by Di Wang, Ping Wang, Zhong Ji, Xiaojun Yang, Hongyue Li (2023)
ROBUST AND SCALABLE UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION WITH CONFORMAL PREDICTION FOR MACHINE-LEARNED INTERATOMIC POTENTIALS
Code by Yuge Hu, Joseph Musielewicz, Zachary Ulissi, Andrew J. Medford (Georgia Institute of Technology/Carnegie Mellon University, 2022)
Clustering of Trajectories using Non-Parametric Conformal DBSCAN Algorithm
by Haotian Wang, Jie Gao, Min-ge Xie Rutgers University, 2022)
Prediction-Powered Inference
by Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stephen Bates, Clara Fannjiang, Michael I. Jordan, Tijana Zrnic (Universify of Berkeley, 2022) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction for Trustworthy Detection of Railway Signals
by Leo Andeol, Thomas Fel, Florence de Grancey, Luca Mossina (Institute de Mathematiques de Toulouse, SCNF, 2022)
PAC Prediction Sets for Large Language Models of Code
by Adam Khakhar, Stephen Mell, Osbert Bastani (University of Pennsylvania, 2023)
Physics Constrained Motion Prediction with Uncertainty Quantification
by Renukanandan Tumu, Lars Lindemann†, Truong Nghiem, Rahul Mangharam, (2023)
Accelerating difficulty estimation for conformal regression forests
by Henrik Bostroem, Henrik Linusson, Tuve Loefstroem, Ulf Johansson (2017)
How to Trust Your Diffusion Model: A Convex Optimization Approach to Conformal Risk Control
by Jacopo Teneggi, Matt Tivnan, J Webster Stayman, Jeremias Sulam (John Hopkins University, 2023) Code
Conformal prediction for STL runtime verification
by Lars Lindemann, Xin Qin, Jyotirmoy V. Deshmukh, George J. Pappas (University of Pennsylvania/University of Southern California, 2022)
Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Motion Planning among Dynamic Agents
by Anushri Dixit, Lars Lindemann, Skylar Wei, Matthew Cleaveland, George J Pappas, Joel W Burdick (California Institute of Technology/University of Pennsylvania, 2022)
Risk Control for Online Learning Models
by Shai Feldman, Liran Ringel, Stephen Bates, Yaniv Romano (2023)
Sensititivty analysis of individual treatment effects: A robust conformal inference approach
Code by Ying Jin, Zhimei Ren and Emmanual Candes (2023)
Improving Adaptive Conformal Prediction Using Self-Supervised Learning
by Nabeel Seedat, Alan Jeffares, Fergus Imrie and Mihaela van der Schaar (Cambridge, 2023) Video Code
Hedging Predictions in Machine Learning
by Alexander Gammerman and Vladimir Vovk (2008) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Predicting Aromatic Amine Mutagenicity with Confidence: A Case Study Using Conformal Prediction
by Ulf Norinder, Glenn Myatt and Ernst Ahlberg
Improved Online Conformal Prediction via Strongly Adaptive Online Learning
by Aadyot Bhatnagar, Huan Wang, Caiming Xiong, Yu Bai (2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Fortuna: A Library for Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning
by Gianluca Detommaso, Alberto Gasparin, Michele Donini, Matthias Seeger, Andrew Gordon Wilson, Cedric Archambeau (2023)
Intervening With Confidence: Conformal Prescriptive Monitoring of Business Processes
by Mahmoud Shoush and Marlon Dumas (University of Tartu,2022)
Machine-Learning Applications of Algorithmic Randomness
by Vladimir Vovk, Alex Gammerman and Craig Saunders (1999) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
On the universal distribution of the coverage in split conformal prediction
by Paulo C. Marques F. (2023)
Lightweight, Uncertainty-Aware Conformalized Visual Odometry
by Alex C. Stutts, Danilo Erricolo, Theja Tulabandhula, and Amit Ranjan Trivedi (University of Illinois Chicago, 2023)
Group conditional validity via multi-group learning
by Samuel Deng, Navid Ardeshir, Daniel Hsu (Columbia University, 2023)
Improving Uncertainty Quantification of Deep Classifiers via Neighborhood Conformal Prediction: Novel Algorithm and…
by Subhankar Ghosh, Taha Belkhouj, Yan Yan, Janardhan Rao Doppa (Washington State University, 2023)
Mondrian conformal regressors
by Henrik Boström, Ulf Johansson (2020)
Mondrian Conformal Predictive Distributions
by Henrik Boström, Ulf Johansson, Tuwe Löfström (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Adaptive Conformal Prediction by Reweighting Nonconformity Score
by Salim I. Amoukou, Nicolas J.B Brunel (2023) Code
Object Pose Estimation with Statistical Guarantees: Conformal Keypoint Detection and Geometric Uncertainty Propagation
by Heng Yang and Marco Pavone (NVIDIA, 2023)
Safe Perception-Based Control under Stochastic Sensor Uncertainty using Conformal Prediction
by Shuo Yang, George J. Pappas, Rahul Mangharam, and Lars Lindemann (University of Pennsylvania, 2023)
Conformal Prediction Regions for Time Series using Linear Complementarity Programming
by Matthew Cleaveland, Insup Lee, George J. Pappas†, and Lars Lindemann (University of Pennsylvania, 2023)
Development and Evaluation of Conformal Prediction Methods for QSAR
by Yuting Xua, Andy Liawa, Robert P. Sheridan (Merck, 2023)
Multi-Agent Reachability Calibration with Conformal Prediction
by Anish Muthali1, Haotian Shen, Sampada Deglurkar, Michael H. Lim, Rebecca Roelofs, Aleksandra Faust, Claire Tomlin (University of Berkeley, 2023)
Conformalized Unconditional Quantile Regression
by Ahmed M. Alaa, Zeshan Hussain, David Sontag (Berkeley/MIT, 2023).
Conformal Off-Policy Evaluation in Markov Decision Processes
by Daniele Foffano, Alessio Russo and Alexandre Proutiere (KTH, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Quantum Conformal Prediction for Reliable Uncertainty Quantification in Quantum Machine Learning
by Sangwoo Park and Osvaldo Simeone (2023) Code QuantumML 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Probabilistic prediction with locally weighted jackknife predictive system
by Di Wang, Ping Wang, Pingping Wang, Cong Wang, Zhen He, Wei Zhang 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Post-selection Inference for Conformal Prediction: Trading off Coverage for Precision
by Siddhaarth Sarkar, Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla (2023)
Conformal Regression in Calorie Prediction for Team Jumbo-Visma
by Kristian van Kuijk, Mark Dirksen, Christof Seiler (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥slides
Design-based conformal prediction
by Jerzy Wieczorek (2023) code
Inductive Confidence Machines for Regression
by Harris Papadopoulos, Kostas Proedrou, Volodya Vovk, and Alex Gammerman (2002) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥📚📚📚📚📚
Model-Agnostic Nonconformity Functionsfor Conformal Classification
by Ulf Johansson, Henrik Linusson, Tuve Löfström, Henrik Boström (2017) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥📚📚📚📚📚
Impact of model-agnostic nonconformity functions on efficiency of conformal classifiers: an extensive study
by Marharyta Aleksandrova, Oleg Chertov (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥📚📚📚📚📚
Inductive Conformal Prediciton: A Straightforward Introduction with examples in Python
by Martim Sousa (2022) Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥📚📚📚📚📚
Closing the Loop on Runtime Monitors with Fallback-Safe MPC
by Rohan Sinha, Edward Schmerling, and Marco Pavone (Standord, 2023)
Calibrated Explanations: with Uncertainty Information and Counterfactuals
by Helena Löfström, Tuwe Löfström, Ulf Johansson, Cecilia S ̈onstr ̈od (2023) Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Optimizing Hyperparameters with Conformal Quantile Regression
by David Salinas, Jacek Golebiowski, Aaron Klein, Matthias Seeger, Cedric Archambeau (Amazon Science, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Rapid Traversal of Ultralarge Chemical Space using Machine Learning Guided Docking Screens
by Andreas Luttens, Israel Cabeza de Vaca, Leonard Sparring, Ulf Norinder, Jens Carlsson (2023) Code Datasets 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Predicting skin sensitizers with confidence — Using conformal prediction to determine applicability domain of GARD
by Andy Forreryd, Ulf Norinder, Tim Lindberg, Malin Lindstedt (2018) 📚📚📚📚📚
Confidence-based Prediction of Antibiotic Resistance at the Patient-level Using Transformers
by J.S. Inda-Diaz, A. Johnning, M. Hessel, A. Sjo ̈berg, A. Lokrantz, L. Hellda, M. Jirstrand, L. Svensson and E. Kristiansson (Chalmers University of Technology and University of Gothenburg/Centre for Antibiotic Resistance Research (CARe), 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Framework based on conformal predictors and power martingales for detection of fixed football matches
by I. Zhuk, O. Chertov (2023)
Principal Uncertainty Quantification with Spatial Correlation for Image Restoration Problems
by Omer Belhasin, Yaniv Romano, Daniel Freedman, Ehud Rivlin, Michael Elad (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformalized matrix completion
by Yu Gui, Rina Foygel Barber, and Cong Ma (University of Chicago, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 code
Conformal Prediction With Conditional Guarantees
by Isaac Gibbs, John Cherian, Emmanuel Candes (Stanford, 2023) code
Uncertainty Quantification over Graph with Conformalized Graph Neural Networks
by Kexin Huang, Ying Jin, Emmanuel Candes, Jure Leskovec (Stanford, 2023) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Federated Conformal Predictors for Distributed Uncertainty Quantification
by Charles Lu, Yaodong Yu, Sai Praneeth Karimireddy, Michael I. Jordan, Ramesh Raskar (MIT/Berkeley, 2023) code video 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction with Large Language Models for Multi-Choice Question Answering
by Bhawesh Kumar, Charlie Lu, Gauri Gupta, Anil Palepu, David Bellamy, Ramesh Raskar, Andrew Beam (Harvard/MIT, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Predictive Distribution Trees
by Ulf Johansson, Tuwe Löfström, Henrik Boström (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
CONFORMAL PREDICTION WITH PARTIALLY LABELED DATA
by Alireza Javanmardi, Yusuf Sale, Paul Hofman, Eyke Hüllermeier (2023)
Conformal Prediction for Federated Uncertainty Quantification Under Label Shift
by Vincent Plassie, Mehdi Makni, Aleksandr Rubashevskii, Eric Moulines, Maxim Panov (2023)
Conformalizing Machine Translation Evaluation
by Chrysoula Zerva, André F. T. Martins (2023)
Class-Conditional Conformal Prediction With Many Classes
by Tiffany Ding, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stephen Bates, Michael I. Jordan, Ryan J. Tibshirani 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (Berkeley, 2023)
Conformal Prediction Sets for Graph Neural Networks
by Soroush Zargarbashi, Simone Antonelli, Aleksandar Bojchevski Code
Conformal link prediction to control the error rate
by Ariane Marandon (2023)
JAWS-X: Addressing Efficiency Bottlenecks of Conformal Prediction Under Standard and Feedback Covariate Shift
Drew Prinster, Suchi Saria, Anqi Liu (John Hopkins University, 2023) Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Bayesian Optimization with Formal Safety Guarantees via Online Conformal Prediction
by Yunchuan Zhang, Sangwoo Park and Osvaldo Simeone (2023)
Robots That Ask For Help: Uncertainty Alignment for Large Language Model Planners
by Allen Z. Ren, Anushri Dixit, Alexandra Bodrova, Sumeet Singh, Stephen Tu, Noah Brown, Peng Xu, Leila Takayama, Fei Xia, Jake Varley, Zhenjia Xu, Dorsa Sadigh, Andy Zeng, Anirudha Majumdar (Princeton/DeepMind, 2023) Website 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Large scale comparison of QSAR and conformal prediction methods and their applications in drug discovery
by Nicolas Bosc, Francis Atkinson, Eloy Felix, Anna Gaulton, Anne Hersey and Andrew R. Leach (Cambridge, 2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Efficiency Comparison of Unstable Transductive and Inductive Conformal Classifiers
by Henrik Linusson, Ulf Johansson, Henrik Bostroem, and Tuve Loefstroem (2014)
How to Trust Your Diffusion Model: A Convex Optimization Approach to Conformal Risk Control
Code (John Hopkins University, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Test Martingale-Based Change-Point Detection for Geospatial Object Detectors
by Gang Wang, Zhiying Lu, Ping Wang, Shuo Zhuang and Di Wang (2023)
Plug-in martingales for testing exchangeability on-line
by Valentina Fedorova, Alex Gammerman, Ilia Nouretdinov, Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, ICML 2012) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Testing Exchangeability On-Line
by Vladimir Vovk, Ilia Nouretdinov and Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, ICML 2003) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Predictive Inference Is Free with the Jackknife+-after-Bootstrap
by Byol Kim, Chen Xu, Rina Foygel Barber (University of Chicago, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction with Large Language Models for Multi-Choice Question Answering
by Bhawesh Kumar, Charles Lu, Gauri Gupta, Anil Palepu, David Bellamy, Ramesh Raskar, Andrew Beam (MIT, 2023) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
CONFORMAL PREDICTIONS ENHANCED EXPERT-GUIDED MESHING WITH GRAPH NEURAL NETWORKS
code by Amin Heyrani Nobari, Justin Rey, Suhas Kodali and Matthew Jones (MIT, 2023) website 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Approximating Full Conformal Prediction at Scale via Influence Functions
by Javier Abad, Umang Bhatt, Adrian Weller, Giovanni Cherubin (Cambridge, Alan Turing Institute, ETH, Microsoft Research, 2023) code video 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Robust Uncertainty Quantification using Conformalised Monte Carlo Prediction
Code by Daniel Bethell, Simos Gerasimou, Radu Calinescu (University of York, 2023) article code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
I do not know! but why?”– Local Model-Agnostic Example-based explanations of reject
code by Andre Artelt, Roel Visser and Barbara Hammer (University of Bielefeld, 2023)
Approximating Score-based Explanation Techniques Using Conformal Regression
by Amr Alkhatib, Henrik Bostroem, Sofiane Ennadir and Ulf Johansson (KTH/Joenkoeping University, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Quantile Risk Control: A Flexible Framework for Bounding the Probability of High-Loss Predictions
by Jake C. Snell, Thomas P. Zollo, Zhun Deng, Toniann Pitassi, Richard Zemel (Princeton University, Columbia University, Harvard University, University of Toronto, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Improving Deep Learning-Based Defect Classification in Solar Cells using Conformal Prediction
by Vitus Bødker Thomsen, Claire Mantel, Gisele Benatto, Søren Forchhammer (DTU - Technical University of Denmark, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Copula-based conformal prediction for Multi-Target Regression
by Soundouss Messoudi, Sébastien Destercke, Sylvain Rousseau (2021) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Meta-learners for Predictive Inference of Individual Treatment Effects
by Ahmed Alaa, Zaid Ahmad, and Mark van der Laan (2023) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Heteroskedastic conformal regression
by NICOLAS DEWOLF, BERNARD DE BAETS AND WILLEM WAEGEMAN (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (UGent, 2023)
Closing the Loop on Runtime Monitors with Fallback-Safe MPC
by Rohan Sinha, Edward Schmerling, and Marco Pavone (Stanford, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Temporal Logic Planning using Large Language Models: Knowing When to Do What and When to Ask for Help
project website by Jun Wang, Jiaming Tong, Kaiyuan Tan, Yevgeniy Vorobeychik, Yiannis Kantaros (Washington University in St.Louis and University of Zurich, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Simultaneous regression and classification for drug sensitivity prediction using an advanced random forest method
code by Kerstin Lenhof, Lea Eckhart, Nico Gerstner, Tim Kehl & Hans-Peter Lenhof (Saarland University, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformalized Quantile Regression
by Yaniv Romano, Evan Patterson, Emmanuel J. Candès (Stanford, 2019)
Fast nonlinear vector quantile regression
by Aviv A. Rosenberg, Sanketh Vedula, Yaniv Romano and Alex M. Bronstein (Technion, 2023) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Achieving Risk Control in Online Learning Settings
by Shai Feldman, Liran Ringel, Stephen Bates, Yaniv Romano (Technion/Berkeley, 2021) code
Reliable assessment of uncertainty for appliance recognition in NILM using conformal prediction
by Lorin Werthen-Brabants, Tom Dhaene, Dirk Deschrijver (Ghent University, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Online NoVaS Conformal Volatility Prediction
slides by Alejandro Canete (University of Chicago) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (2023)
Market Implied Conformal Volatility Intervals
slides by Alejandro Canete (University of Chicago) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (2023)
The Venn-ABERS Testing for Change-Point Detection
slides by Ilia Nouretdinov and Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
A Review of Nonconformity Measures for Conformal Prediction in Regression
slides by Yuko Kato, David M.J. Tax, Marco Loog (Delft University of Technology, Radboud University, Nijmegen, Netherlands, 2023)
Approximating Score-based Explanation Techniques Using Conformal Regression
slides by Amr Alkhatib, Henrik Bostroem, Sofiane Ennadir, Ulf Johansson (KTH, Joenkoeping University, 2023).
Mondrian Predictive Systems for Censored Data
slides by Henrik Bostroem, Henrik Linusson, Anders Vesterberg (KTH, Ekkono Solutions AB, Scania CV AB, Sweden 2023).
Evaluating Machine Translation Quality with Conformal Predictive Distributions
slides by Patrizio Giovannotti (Royal Holloway, UK) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Confidence Calibration for Systems with Cascaded Predictive Modules
by Yunye Gong, Yi Yao, Xiao Lin, Ajay Divakaran, Melinda Gervasio (SRI International, 2023)
TriadNet: Sampling-free predictive intervals for lesional volume in 3D brain MR images
by Benjamin Lambert, Florence Forbes, Senan Doyle, and Michel Dojat (Grenoble Institut Neurosciences / Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Pixyl, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Predictions for longitudinal data
by Devesh Batra, Salvatore Mercuri and Raad Khraishi (Data Science & Innovation - NatWest Group, Institute of Finance and Technology, UCL, UK, 2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 code
Distribution-free risk assessment of regression-based machine learning algorithms
by Sukrita Singh, Neeraj Sarna, Yuanyuan Li, Yang Lin, Agni Orfanoudaki (University of Oxford / MunichRe, 2023).
CONFORMAL PREDICTION FOR DEEP CLASSIFIER VIA LABEL RANKING
by Jianguo Huang, Huajun Xi, Linjun Zhang, Huaxiu Yao, Yue Qiu, Hongxin Wei (Southern University of Science and Technology, ShanghaiTech University, Rutgers University, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chongqing University) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 code
On the Expected Size of Conformal Prediction Sets
by Guneet S. Dhillon, George Deligiannidis, Tom Rainforth (University of Oxford, 2023) code🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Group-Conditional Conformal Prediction via Quantile Regression Calibration for Crop and Weed Classification
by Paul Melki, Lionel Bombrun, Boubacar Diallo, Jérôme Dias, Jean-Pierre Da Costa by EXXACT Robotics (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Guaranteed Coverage Prediction Intervals with Gaussian Process Regression
by Harris Papadopoulos (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
TRIAGE: Characterizing and auditing training data for improved regression
by Nabeel Seedat, Jonathan Crabbé, Zhaozhi Qian, Mihaela van der Schaar (University of Cambridge, 2023) code) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal PID Control for Time Series Prediction
by Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Emmanuel J. Candes, Ryan J. Tibshirani (Berkeley/Stanford, NeurIPS2023) code
Conformal Prediction for Uncertainty-Aware Planning with Diffusion Dynamics Model
by Jiankai Sun, Jiankai_Sun, Yiqi Jiang, Jianing Qiu, Parth Talpur Nobel, Mykel Kochenderfer, Mac Schwager (Staford, Imperial College, 2023)
CoDrug: Conformal Drug Property Prediction with Density Estimation under Covariate Shift
by Siddhartha Laghuvarapu, Zhen Lin, Jimeng Sun (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, 2023)
PAC-Bayes Generalization Certificates for Learned Inductive Conformal Prediction
Apoorva Sharma, Sushant Veer, Asher Hancock, Heng Yang, Marco Pavone, Anirudha Majumdar (NVIDIA Research, Harvard, Princeton, Stanford 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction Sets for Ordinal Classification
by Prasenjit Dey, Srujana Merugu, Sivaramakrishnan Kaveri (Amazon, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Beyond Confidence: Reliable Models Should Also Consider Atypicality
by Mert Yuksekgonul, Linjun Zhang, James Zou, Carlos Guestrin (Stanford/Rutgers) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
On the Out-of-Distribution Coverage of Combining Split Conformal Prediction and Bayesian Deep Learning
by Paul Scemama, Ariel Kapusta (The Mitre Corporation, 2023)
A powerful rank-based correction to multiple testing under positive dependency
by Alexander Timans, Christoph-Nikolas Straehle, Kaspar Sakmann, Eric Nalisnick (Bosch AI, 2023)
Prompt Risk Control: A Rigorous Framework for Responsible Deployment of Large Language Models
by Thomas P. Zollo, Todd Morrill, Zhun Deng, Jake C. Snell, Toniann Pitassi, Richard Zemel (Columbia University, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Risk-Aware and Explainable Framework for Ensuring Guaranteed Coverage in Evolving Hardware Trojan Detection
by Rahul Vishwakarma, Amin Rezaei (California State University, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Uncertainty quantification in automated valuation models with locally weighted conformal prediction
by Anders Hjort, Gudmund Horn Hermansen, Johan Pensar, Jonathan P. Williams (University of Oslo, North Carolina State University, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Multi-Modal Conformal Prediction Regions by Optimizing Convex Shape Templates
by Renukanandan Tumu, Matthew Cleaveland, Rahul Mangharam, George J. Pappas, Lars Lindemann code (University of Pennsylvania, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Verification of Neural Reachable Tubes via Scenario Optimization and Conformal Prediction
by Albert Lin, Somil Bansal (University of Southern California, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Kandinsky Conformal Prediction: Efficient Calibration of Image Segmentation Algorithms
code by Joren Brunekreef, Eric Marcus, Ray Sheombarsing, Jan-Jakob Sonke, Jonas Teuwen (The Netherlands Cancer Institute, University of Amsterdam) (2023)
Forecasting CPI inflation under economic policy and geo-political uncertainties
by Shovon Sengupta, Tanujit Chakraborty, Sunny Kumar Singh (Fidelity Investments, Sorbonne University, BITS Pilani Hyderabad). (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥code
Conformal prediction of option prices
by Bastas Joao (University of Lisbon, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Towards Modeling Uncertainties of Self-explaining Neural Networks via Conformal Prediction
by Wei Qian, Chenxu Zhao, Yangyi Li, Fenglong Ma, Chao Zhang, Mengdi Huai (Iowa University, Pennsylvania State University, Georgia Institute of Technology (2024).
Greek Proverbs: Computational Spatial Attribution
by John Pavlopoulos and Panos Louridas, Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece (2024)
Conformal causal inference for cluster randomized trials: model-robust inference without asymptotic approximations
by Bingkai Wang, Fan Li and Mengxin (University of Michigan, Yale, University of Pennsylvania)
Distribution-Free Conformal Joint Prediction Regions for Neural Marked Temporal Point Processes
by Victor Dheur, Tanguy Bosser, Rafael Izbicki, Souhaib Ben Taieb (Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Brazil and University of Mons, Belgium, 2024) code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Predicting Random Walks and a Data-Splitting Prediction Region
by Mulubrhan G. Haile, Lingling Zhang, and David J. Olive (Westminster College, University of Albany, Southern Illinois University)
Integrating Uncertainty Awareness into Conformalized Quantile Regression
code by Raphael Rossellini, Rina Foygel Barber and Rebecca Willett (University of Chicago, 2023) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction Sets Improve Human Decision Making
by Jesse C. Cresswell, Yi Sui, Bhargava Kumar, Noel Vouitsis (Layer 6 AI, TD Securities, 2024)
Benchmarking LLMs via Uncertainty Quantification
by Fanghua Ye, Mingming Yang, Jianhui Pang, Longyue Wang, Derek F. Wong, Emine Yilmaz, Shuming Shi, Zhaopeng Tu (Tencent AI Lab, University College London, University of Macau 2024).
ACHO: Adaptive Conformal Hyperparameter Optimization
by Ricardo Doyle (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 code
Characterizing Water Composition with an Autonomous Robotic Team Employing Comprehensive In-Situ Sensing,…
by John Waczak, Adam Aker, Lakitha O. H. Wijeratne, Shawhin Talebi, Bharana Fernando, Prabuddha Hathurusinghe, Mazhar Iqbal, David Schaefer, David J. Lary (University of Texas Dallas, 2024)
Non-Exchangeable Conformal Language Generation with Nearest Neighbors
by Dennis Ulmer, Chrysoula Zerva, André F.T. Martins (IT University of Copenhagen, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, 2024) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Group-Weighted Conformal Prediction
by Aabesh Bhattacharyya, Rina Foygel Barber (University of Chicago, 2024)
Conformal Monte Carlo Meta-learners for Predictive Inference of Individual Treatment Effects
by Jef Jonkers, Jarne Verhaeghe, Glenn Van Wallendael, Luc Duchateau, Sofie Van Hoecke (Ghent University, 2024) code
Bellman Conformal Inference: Calibrating Prediction Intervals For Time Series
by Zitong Yang, Emmanuel Candès, Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2024) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 code
TISSUE (Transcript Imputation with Spatial Single-cell Uncertainty Estimation)
by James Zou, Eric Sun, Rong Ma, Anne Brunet, and Paloma Navarro Negredo (Stanford, Harvard, 2024) code
Conformal Predictive Programming for Chance Constrained Optimization
by Yiqi Zhao, Xinyi Yu, Jyotirmoy V. Deshmukh and Lars Lindemann (University of Southern California. 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Introspective Planning: Guiding Language-Enabled Agents to Refine Their Own Uncertainty
by Kaiqu Liang, Zixu Zhang, Jaime Fernandez Fisac(Princeton, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Regression Trees for Fast and Adaptive Prediction Intervals
by Luben M. C. Cabezasa, Mateus P. Ottoa, Rafael Izbicki, Rafael B. Sternc (Federal University of São Carlos, University of São Paulo,2024) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Self-Consistent Conformal Prediction
by Lars van der Laan, Ahmed M. Alaa (University of Southern California, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction via Regression-as-Classification
by Etash Guha, Shlok Natarajan, Thomas Möllenhoff, Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan, Eugene Ndiaye (RIKEN AIP, Salesforce, Apple, SambaNova Systems, 2023) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Safe Task Planning for Language-Instructed Multi-Robot Systems using Conformal Prediction
by Jun Wang, Guocheng He, and Yiannis Kantaros (Washington University in St Louis, 2024).
Conformalized-DeepONet: A Distribution-Free Framework for Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Operator Networks
by Christian Moya, Amirhossein Mollaali, Zecheng Zhang, Lu Lu, Guang Lin (Purdue University, Florida State University, Yale, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
API Is Enough: Conformal Prediction for Large Language Models Without Logit-Access
by Jiayuan Su, Jing Luo, Hongwei Wang, Lu Cheng (Zhejiang University, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Institute, University of Illinois Chicago, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Language Modeling
) by Victor Quach, Adam Fisch, Tal Schuster, Adam Yala, Jae Ho Sohn, Tommi S. Jaakkola, Regina Barzilay (MIT, Berkeley, Google Research, UC San Francisco, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
A Safety-Critical Framework for UGVs in Complex Environments: A Data-Driven Discrepancy-Aware Approach
by Skylar X. Wei, Lu Gan, Joel W. Burdick (California Institute of Technology,Georgia Institute of Technology, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal prediction for multi-dimensional time series by ellipsoidal sets
by Chen Xu, Hanyang Jiang, and Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2024) code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal prediction of molecule-induced cancer cell growth inhibition challenged by strong distribution shifts
by Saiveth Hernandez-Hernandez, Qianrong Guo, Pedro Ballester (Imperial College, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Robust Conformal Prediction under Distribution Shift via Physics-Informed Structural Causal Model
by Rui Xu, Yue Sun, Chao Chen, Parv Venkitasubramaniam, Sihong (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), Lehigh University, Bethlehem, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal link prediction for false discovery rate control
by Ariane Marandon (Sorbonne Université, 2024)
Risk-Calibrated Human-Robot Interaction via Set-Valued Intent Prediction
by Justin Lidard, Ariel Bachman, Bryan Boateng, Anirudha Majumdar (Princeton, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Predictive Inference in Multi-environment Scenarios
by John C. Duchi, Suyash Gupta, Kuanhao Jiang, Pragya Sur (Stanford, Harvard, Amazon, 2024)
Conformal online model aggregation
by Matteo Gasparin, Aaditya Ramdas (Carnegie Mellon University, University of Padova, 2024)
Conformal Intent Classification and Clarification for Fast and Accurate Intent Recognition
by Floris den Hengst, Ralf Wolter, Patrick Altmeyer, Arda Kaygan (University of Amsterdam, ING, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Coverage-Guaranteed Prediction Sets for Out-of-Distribution Data
by Xin Zou, Weiwei Liu (Wuhan University. 2024)
Conformal Prediction for Stochastic Decision-Making of PV Power in Electricity Markets
by Yvet Renkema, Nico Brinkel & Tarek Alskaif (Wageningen University, Utrecht University, 2024). 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
FDR control and FDP bounds for conformal link prediction
by Gilles Blanchard, Guillermo Durand, Ariane Marandon-Carlhian, Romain Périer (University of Paris-Saclay, The Allan Turing Institute).
Postprocessing of point predictions for probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices: Diversity matters
by Arkadiusz Lipiecki, Bartosz Uniejewski, Rafał Weron (Wrocław University of Science and Technology, 2024)
Conformal Prediction Interval Estimations with an Application to Day-Ahead and Intraday Power Markets
by Christopher Katha, Florian Ziel (University Duisburg-Essen, 2020)
On-line conformalized neural networks ensembles for probabilistic forecasting of day-ahead electricity prices
by Alessandro Brusaferria, Andrea Ballarinoa, Luigi Grossib, Fabrizio Laurini (CNR, Institute of Intelligent Industrial Technologies and Systems for Advanced Manufacturing, Universoty of Parma 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
A novel day-ahead regional and probabilistic wind power forecasting framework using deep CNNs and conformalized…
by Jef Jonkers, Diego Nieves Avendano, Glenn Van Wallendael, Sofie Van Hoecke (Ghent University, 2024)
CONFLARE: CONFormal LArge language model REtrieval
by Pouria Rouzrokh, Shahriar Faghani, Cooper Gamble, Moein Shariatnia, Bradley J. Erickson (Mayo Clinic Artificial Intelligence Laboratory; Orthopedic Surgery Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Mayo Clinic, MN, USA; Tehran University of Medical Sciences) code video 🔥🔥🔥🔥
WaveCatBoost for Probabilistic Forecasting of Regional Air Quality Data
by Jintu Borah, Tanujit Chakraborty, Md. Shahrul Md. Nadzir, Mylene G. Cayetano, Shubhankar Majumdar (Sorbonne University, NIT Meghalaya, Universiti Kebangsaan, University of Philippines, 2024) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Pricing Catastrophe Bonds --- a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach
by Xiaowei Chen, Hong Li, Yufan Lu, Rui Zhou (Nankai University, University of Guelph, The University of Melbourne, 2024)
Adaptive Conformal Prediction Intervals Using Data-Dependent Weights With Application to Seismic Response Prediction
by Parisa Hajibabaee; Farhad Pourkamali-Anaraki; Mohammad Amin Hariri-Ardebili (Parisa Hajibabaee; Farhad Pourkamali-Anaraki; Mohammad Amin Hariri-Ardebili (Florida Polytechnic University, University of Colorado Denver, University of Maryland, 2024)
Enhancing the reliability of probabilistic PV power forecasts using conformal prediction
by Yvet Renkema, Lennard Visser, Tarek AlSkaif (Wageningen University, Utrecht University, 2024)
Random Projection Ensemble Conformal Prediction for High-Dimensional Classification
by Xiaoyu Qian, Jinru Wu, Ligong Wei, Youwu Lin )Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guangxi Academy of Sciences, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, 2024)
Conformal Predictive Systems Under Covariate Shift
by Jef Jonkers, Glenn Van Wallendael, Luc Duchateau, Sofie Van Hoecke (hent University, Belgium) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Metric-guided Image Reconstruction Bounds via Conformal Prediction
by Matt Y Cheung, Tucker J Netherton, Laurence E Court, Ashok Veeraraghavan, Guha Balakrishnan (The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Cente, 2024)
Training-Conditional Coverage Bounds for Uniformly Stable Learning Algorithms
by Mehrdad Pournaderi, Yu Xiang (University of Utah, 2024)
Safe POMDP Online Planning among Dynamic Agents via Adaptive Conformal Prediction
by Shili Sheng, Pian Yu, David Parker, Marta Kwiatkowska, Lu Feng (University of Oxford, 2024)
Conformal Prediction of Motion Control Performance for an Automated Vehicle in Presence of Actuator Degradations and…
by Richard Schubert, Marvin Loba, Jasper Sünnemann, Torben Stolte, Markus Maurer (TU Braunschweig, 2024)
Towards Robust Ferrous Scrap Material Classification with Deep Learning and Conformal Prediction
by Paulo Henrique dos Santos, Valéria de Carvalho Santos, Eduardo José da Silva Luz (Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto e Instituto Tecnol´ogico Vale, Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, Brazil 🇧🇷, 2024)
From Data Imputation to Data Cleaning — Automated Cleaning of Tabular Data Improves Downstream Predictive Performance
by Sebastian Jäger, Felix Biessmann (Berlin University of Applied Sciences and Technology (BHT), Einstein Center Digital Future 🇩🇪, 2024) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Online Calibrated and Conformal Prediction Improves Bayesian Optimization
Shachi Deshpande, Charles Marx, Volodymyr Kuleshov (Cornell University, Stanford, 🇺🇸, 2024)
Evaluating the Utility of Conformal Prediction Sets for AI-Advised Image Labeling
by Dongping Zhang, Angelos Chatzimparmpas, Negar Kamali, Jessica Hullman (Northwestern University, 🇺🇸, 2024) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Adaptive Conformal Regression with Split-Jackknife+ Scores
by Nicolas Deutschmann, Mattia Rigotti, María Rodríguez Martínez (IBM Research, 2023)
Comparison of Scaling Methods to Obtain Calibrated Probabilities of Activity for Protein–Ligand Predictions
by Lewis H. Mervin, Avid M. Afzal, Ola Engkvist, and Andreas Bender (2020)
Conformal Prediction for Natural Language Processing: A Survey
by Margarida Campos, António Farinhas, Chrisoula Zerva, Mario Figueiredo, Andre Martins (Instituto de Telecomunicações, Instituto Superior Técnico, LUMLIS (Lisbon ELLIS Unit), Unbabel, Portugal, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Mitigating LLM Hallucinations via Conformal Abstention
by Yasin Abbasi Yadkori, Ilja Kuzborskij, David Stutz, András György, Adam Fisch, Arnaud Doucet, Iuliya Beloshapka, Wei-Hung Weng, Yao-Yuan Yang, Csaba Szepesvári, Ali Taylan Cemgil, Nenad Tomasev (2024)
CarbonCP: Carbon-Aware DNN Partitioning with Conformal Prediction for Sustainable Edge Intelligence
by Hongyu Ke, Wanxin Jin, Haoxin Wang (Georgia State University, Arizona State University, 2024)
Conformalized Ordinal Classification with Marginal and Conditional Coverage
by Subhrasish Chakraborty, Chhavi Tyagi, Haiyan Qiao, Wenge Guo (New Jersey Institute of Technology, California State University San Bernardino, 2024)
An Information Theoretic Perspective on Conformal Prediction
by Alvaro H.C. Correia, Fabio Valerio Massoli, Christos Louizos, Arash Behboodi (Qualcomm AI Research, 2024)
Conformal Prediction with Learned Features
by Shayan Kiyani, George Pappas, Hamed Hassani (University of Pennsylvania, 2024)
Onboard Out-of-Calibration Detection of Deep Learning Models using Conformal Prediction
by Protim Bhattacharjee, Peter Jung (Optical Sensor Systems, German Aerospace Center, 2024)
A Conformal Prediction Score that is Robust to Label Noise
by Coby Penso, Jacob Goldberger (Bar-Ilan University, Israel, 2024)
Building consumption anomaly detection: A comparative study of two probabilistic approaches
by Davor Stjelja, Vladimir Kuzmanovski, Risto Kosonen, Juha Jokisalo (Aalto University, Granlund Oy, Vaisala Oyj, Nanjing Tech University,2024)
Robust Route Planning under Uncertain Pickup Requests for Last-mile Delivery
by Hua Yan, Heng Tan, Desheng Zhang, Haotian Wang, Yu Yang (Lehigh University, Rutgers University, USA; JD Logistics, Beijing, China)
Improve robustness of machine learning via efficient optimization and conformal prediction
by Yan Yan (Washington State University, 2024)
Conformalized Survival Distributions: A Generic Post-Process to Increase Calibration
by Shi-ang Qi, Yakun Yu, Russell Greiner (University of Alberta, 2024)
Conformal Online Auction Design
by Jiale Han, Xiaowu Dai (University of California, 2024)
Conformal Validity Guarantees Exist for Any Data Distribution
by Drew Prinster, Samuel Stanton, Anqi Liu, Suchi Saria (John Hopkins University Genentech, 2024) code 💎💎💎💎💎🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Kernel-based optimally weighted conformal prediction intervals
by Jonghyeok Lee, Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2024) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Reliable anti-cancer drug sensitivity prediction and prioritization
by Kerstin Lenhof, Lea Eckhart, Lisa-Marie Rolli, Andrea Volkamer & Hans-Peter Lenhof (Saarland University, 2024)
Robust Conformal Prediction Using Privileged Information
by Shai Feldman, Yaniv Romano (2024)
Conformal Inference for Online Prediction with Arbitrary Distribution Shifts
by Isaac Gibbs, Emmanuel J. Candès code (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Adaptive Uncertainty Quantification for Trajectory Prediction Under Distributional Shift
by Huiqun Huang, Sihong He, Fei Miao (University of Connecticut, 2024)
Conditional Shift-Robust Conformal Prediction for Graph Neural Network
by Akansha Singh (Manipal Academy of Higher Education (MAHE) - Manipal Institute of Technology, 2024)
Conformal prediction for multi-dimensional time series by ellipsoidal sets
by Chen Xu, Hanyang Jiang, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2024) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Transformer Conformal Prediction for Time Series
by Junghwan Lee, Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2024) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 code
Identifying Homogeneous and Interpretable Groups for Conformal Prediction
by Natalia Martinez, Dhaval C Patel, Chandra Reddy, Giridhar Ganapavarapu, Roman Vaculin, Jayant Kalagnanam (IBM Research, 2024)
Guaranteeing Robustness Against Real-World Perturbations In Time Series Classification Using Conformalized Randomized…
by Nicola Franco, Jakob Spiegelberg, Jeanette Miriam Lorenz, Stephan Günnemann (Fraunhofer Institute for Cognitive Systems IKS, Munich, Germany; Volkswagen Group Innovation; Technical Univ. of Munich, 2024)
Conformal Load Prediction with Transductive Graph Autoencoders
by Rui Luo, Nicolo Colombo (City University of Hong Kong; Royal Holloway, University of London, 2024) code
Conformal Recursive Feature Elimination
by Marcos Lopez-De-Castro, Alberto Garcıa-Galindo, Ruben Armananzas (Universidad de Navarra, 2024)
Enhancing reliability in prediction intervals using point forecasters: Heteroscedastic Quantile Regression and…
Carlos Sebastiana,Carlos E. Gonzalez-Guillenc, Jesus Juane (Fortia Energıa, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Instituto de Ciencias Matematicas, Madrid) code (2024) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal time series decomposition with component-wise exchangeability
by Derck W. E. Prinzhorn, Thijmen Nijdam, Putri A. van der Linden, Alexander Timans (University of Amsterdam, 2024) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 code
Online Calibrated and Conformal Prediction Improves Bayesian Optimization
by Shachi Deshpande, Charles Marx, Volodymyr Kuleshov (Cornell Tech and Cornell University, Stanford, 2024)
An Information Theoretic Perspective on Conformal Prediction
by Alvaro H.C. Correia Fabio Valerio Massoli Christos Louizos† Arash Behboodi (Qualcomm AI Research, 2024)
Conformal Prediction for Causal Effects of Continuous Treatments
by Maresa Schröder, Dennis Frauen, Jonas Schweisthal, Konstantin Heß, Valentyn Melnychuk, Stefan Feuerriegel (LMU Munich, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Uncertainty-Aware Decarbonization for Datacenters
by Amy Li, Sihang Liu, Yi Ding (Uiversity of Waterloo, 2024)
Conditionally valid Probabilistic Conformal Prediction
by Vincent Plassier, Alexander Fishkov, Maxim Panov, Eric Moulines (Lagrange Mathematics and Computing Research Center, Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence, CMAP, Ecole Polytechnique, Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology (2024)
Reliable Confidence Intervals for Information Retrieval Evaluation Using Generative A.I.
by Harrie Oosterhuis,Zhen Qin, Xuanhui Wang, Rolf Jagerman, Michael Bendersky, (Radbound University, Google Research, 2024)
Trustworthy Classification through Rank-Based Conformal Prediction Sets
by Rui Luo, Zhixin Zhou (City University of Hong Kong, 2024)
Distributionally robust risk evaluation with an isotonic constraint
by Yu Gui, Rina Foygel Barber, Cong Ma (University of Chicago, 2024) code
Split Conformal Prediction under Data Contamination
by Jase Clarkson, Wenkai Xu, Mihai Cucuringu, Gesine Reinert code
Weighted Aggregation of Conformity Scores for Classification
by Rui Luo, Zhixin Zhou (2024)
Robust Yet Efficient Conformal Prediction Sets
by Soroush H. Zargarbashi, Mohammad Sadegh Akhondzadeh, Aleksandar Bojchevski (University of Cologne, 2024)
Learning Cellular Network Connection Quality with Conformal
by Hanyang Jiang, Elizabeth Belding, Ellen Zegure, Yao Xie (Universiry of Georgia, 2024)
Conformal Thresholded Intervals for Efficient Regression
by Rui Luo, Zhixin Zhou (City University of Hong Kong, 2024)
Conformal Predictions under Markovian Data
by Frédéric Zheng, Alexandre Proutiere (KTH, 2024)
Entropy Reweighted Conformal Classification
by Rui Luo, Nicolo Colombo (City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Royal Holloway, University of London). 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
SoNIC: Safe Social Navigation with Adaptive Conformal Inference and Constrained Reinforcement Learning
by Jianpeng Yao, Xiaopan Zhang, Yu Xia, Zejin Wang, Amit K. Roy-Chowdhury, Jiachen Li (University of California, Riverside) project
Robust Conformal Volume Estimation in 3D Medical Images
by Benjamin Lambert, Florence Forbes, Senan Doyle, Michel Dojat (University Grenoble Alps, 2024) code
A CONFORMALIZED LEARNING OF A PREDICTION SET WITH APPLICATIONS TO MEDICAL IMAGING CLASSIFICATION
by Roy Hirsch, Jacob Goldberger (Bar-Ilan University, Ramat-Gan, Israel, 2024)
Quantifying uncertainty in climate projections with conformal ensembles
by Trevor Harris, Ryan Sriver (Texas A&M University, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformalized Interval Arithmetic with Symmetric Calibration
by Rui Luo, Zhixin Zhou (City University of Hong Kong, 2024)
Split Conformal Prediction and Non-Exchangeable Data
by Roberto I. Oliveira, Paulo Orenstein, Thiago Ramos, João Vitor Romano (IMPA, Brazil, 2024) code
PersonalizedUS: Interpretable Breast Cancer Risk Assessment with Local Coverage Uncertainty Quantification
by Alek Frohlic, Thiago Ramos, Gustavo Cabello, Isabela Buzatto, Rafael Izbicki, Daniel Tiezzi (UFSC, Florianopolis, UFSCar, Sao Carlos, USP, Ribeirao Preto, Brazil) (2024)
Conformal Prediction in Dynamic Biological Systems
by Alberto Portela, Julio R. Banga, Marcos Matabuena (Spanish National Research Council, Harvard University) (2024)
Spatial-Aware Conformal Prediction for Trustworthy Hyperspectral Image Classification
by Kangdao Liu, Tianhao Sun, Hao Zeng, Yongshan Zhang, Chi-Man Pun, Chi-Man Vong (University of Macau, Southern University of Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences, 2024)
Formal Verification and Control with Conformal Prediction
by Lars Lindemann, Yiqi Zhao, Xinyi Yu, George J. Pappas, Jyotirmoy V. Deshmukh (University of Southern California, University of Pennsylvania) (2024)
Segmentation uncertainty with statistical guarantees in prostate MRI
Kevin Mekhaphan Nguyen, Alvaro Fernandez-Quilez, University of Stavanger, Norway. Stavanger University Hospital, Stavanger, Norway (2024)
Making Deep Learning Models Clinically Useful - Improving Diagnostic Confidence in Inherited Retinal Disease with…
by Biraja Ghoshal, William Woof, Bernardo Mendes et al (University College London Institute of Ophthalmology, Moorfields Eye Hospital, Oxford Eye Hospital, Oxford, United Kingdom, Laboratory of Visual Physiology, Division of Vision Research, National Institute of Sensory Organs, National Hospital…
Conformal Multilayer Perceptron-Based Probabilistic Net-Load Forecasting for Low-Voltage Distribution Systems with…
by Anthony Faustine and Lucas Pereira, Center for Intelligent Power (CIP), Eaton Corporation, Dublin, Ireland; †ITI, LARSyS, Tecnico Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal (2024)
Conformal Diffusion Models for Individual Treatment Effect Estimation and Inference
by Hengrui Cai, Huaqing Jin, Lexin Li (University of California Irvine, University of California San Francisco, University of California Berkeley, 2024).
Quantifying Aleatoric and Epistemic Dynamics Uncertainty via Local Conformal Calibration
by Luís Marques, Dmitry Berenson (University of Michigan, Ann Arbour, USA) project
On the uncertainty of real estate price predictions
by João A. Bastos, Jeanne Paquette (University of Lisbon, Portugal, 2024)
Adaptive Uncertainty Quantification for Generative AI
by Jungeum Kim, Sean O'Hagan, Veronika Rockova (University of Chicago, 2024) code
Localized Conformal Prediction: A Generalized Inference Framework to Conformal Prediction
by Leying Guan (Yale University, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Split Localized Conformal Prediction
by Xing Han Ziyang Tang Joydeep Ghosh Qiang Liu (University of Texas at Austin, 2022) code
Conformalized Semi-supervised Random Forest for Classification and Abnormality Detection
by Yujin Han, Mingwenchan Xu, Leying Guan (Universtity of Hong Kong, Northwestern University, Yale University, 2024) code
Length Optimization in Conformal Prediction
by Shayan Kiyani, George Pappas, Hamed Hassani (University of Pennsylvania,2024) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Adjusting Regression Models for Conditional Uncertainty Calibration
by Ruijiang Gao, Mingzhang Yin, James McInerney, Nathan Kallus (Naveen Jindal School of Management, University of Texas at Dallas, University of Florida, Gainesville, Netflix, Cornell University, 2024) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Task-Driven Uncertainty Quantification in Inverse Problems via Conformal Prediction
by Jeffrey Wen, Rizwan Ahma. Philip Schniter (The Ohio State University) code
Adaptive Bounding Box Uncertainties via Two-Step Conformal Prediction
by Alexander Timans, Christoph-Nikolas Straehle, Kaspar Sakmann, Eric Nalisnick (University of Amsterdam, Bosch Centre for AI, 2024)
Similarity-Navigated Conformal Prediction for Graph
by Jianqing Song, Jianguo Huang,Wenyu Jiang, Baoming Zhang, Shuangjie Li, Chongjun Wang (Nanjing University, Southern University of Science and Technology, ShanghaiTech University, 2024)
Conformal Prediction for Class-wise Coverage via Augmented Label Rank Calibration
by Yuanjie Shi, Subhankar Ghosh, Taha Belkhouja, Janardhan Rao Doppa, Yan Yan (Washington State University, 2024)
Detecting Railway Track Irregularities Using Conformal Prediction
by Andreas Plesner, Allan P. Engsig-Karup, Hans True (ETH Zurich, Technical University of Denmark, 2024)
CoPAL: Conformal Prediction for Active Learning with Application to Remaining Useful Life Estimation in Predictive…
by Zahra Kharazian, Tony Lindgren, Sindri Magnusson, Henrik Bostrom (KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm University, Sweden, 2024)
ConForME: Multi-horizon conformal time series forecasting
by Aloysio Galvao Lopes, Eric Goubault, Sylvie Putot, Laurent Pautet (Institut Polytechnique de Paris, LTCI, Telecom Paris, 2024) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Unsupervised radiometric change detection from synthetic aperture radar images
Thomas Bultingaire , Inès Meraoumia, Christophe Kervazo, Loïc Denis, Florence Tupin (LTCI, Tel´ ecom Paris, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Universite Jean Monnet Saint-Etienne, CNRS, Institut d’Optique Graduate School, Laboratoire Hubert Curien, France 2024)
Conformal Distributed Remote Inference in Sensor Networks Under Reliability and Communication Constraints
by Meiyi Zhu, Matteo Zecchin, Sangwoo Park, Caili Guo, Chunyan Feng, Petar Popovski, Osvaldo Simeone (King's College London, UK, Aaborg University, Denmark).
Boosted Conformal Prediction Intervals
by Ran Xie, Rina Foygel Barber, Emmanuel J. Candès (Stanford, University of Chicago, 2024)
Verifiably Robust Conformal Prediction
by Linus Jeary, Tom Kuipers, Mehran Hosseini, Nicola Paoletti (King’s College London, UK, 2024)
Estimating Quality of Approximated Shapley Values Using Conformal Prediction
by Amr Alkhatib, Henrik Bostrom, Ulf Johansson (KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Jonkoping University, Sweden, 2024)
Clustered Conformal Prediction for the Housing Market
by Anders Hjort,Jonathan P. Williams, Johan Pensar (University of Oslo,North Carolina State University, 2024)
Conformal Stability Measure for Feature Selection Algorithms
by Marcos Lopez-De-Castro, Alberto Garcıa-Galindo, Ruben Armananzas (Universidad de Navarra, Spain, 2024)
The Uncertain Object: Application of Conformal Prediction to Aerial and Satellite Images
Vicky Copley, Greg Finlay, Ben Hiett (DSTL, UK, 2024)
Conformal prediction for regression models with asymmetrically distributed errors: application to aircraft navigation…
by Solène Vilfroy, Lionel Bombrun, Thierry Urruty, Thierry Urruty, Philippe Carré (Thales, France, 2024)
Multi-Class Classification With Reject Option and Performance Guarantees Using Conformal Prediction
by Alberto Garcıa-Galindo, Marcos Lopez-De-Castro, Rubeen Armananzas (Universidad de Navarra, Spain, 2024)
Multi-label Conformal Prediction with a Mahalanobis Distance Nonconformity Measure
by Kostas Katsios, Harris Papadopoulos (Frederick University, Cyprus, Albourne Partners Ltd, London, UK, 2024)
Conformal Prediction for Semantically-Aware Autonomous Perception in Urban Environments
by Achref Doula, Tobias Güdelhöfer, Max Mühlhäuser, Alejandro Sanchez Guinea (Technische Universität Darmstadt, Germany, 2024)
Conformal prediction with local weights: randomization enables robust guarantees
by Rohan Hore, Rina Foygel Barber (University of Chicago, 2024) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Posterior Conformal Prediction
by https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.19712 (Standord, 2024) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Semantic Image Segmentation: Post-hoc Quantification of Predictive Uncertainty
by Luca Mossina, Joseba Dalmau, Léo Andéol (IRT Saint Exupery, Toulouse; Institut de Mathe ́matiques de Toulouse; Toulouse, SNCF,France) code
Conformal Prediction: A Data Perspective
by Xiaofan Zhou, Baiting Chen, Yu Gui, Lu Cheng (University of illinois, UCLA, University of Chicago, 2024)
Conformal Structured Prediction
by Botong Zhang, Shuo Li, Osbert Bastani (University of Pennsylvania, 2024)
Optimizing Probabilistic Conformal Prediction with Vectorized Non-Conformity Scores
by Minxing Zheng, Shixiang Zhu (University of Southern California, Carnegie Mellon University, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 code
C-Adapter: Adapting Deep Classifiers for Efficient Conformal Prediction Sets
by Kangdao Liu, Hao Zeng, Jianguo Huang, Huiping Zhuang, Chi-Man Vong, Hongxin Wei (Southern University of Science and Technology 2Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Macau, Nanyang Technological University, South China University of Technology, 2024)
Conformal Predictive Portfolio Selection
by Masahiro Kato (Mizuho-DL Financial Technology, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction in Finance
by Miquel Noguer i Alonso Artificial Intelligence in Finance Institute (2024)
Reliable Multi-View Learning with Conformal Prediction for Aortic Stenosis Classification in Echocardiography
by Ang Nan Gu, Michael Tsang, Hooman Vaseli, Teresa Tsang, Purang Abolmaesumi (University of British Columbia, Vancouver; Division of Cardiology, Vancouver General Hospital,2024) code
Target Strangeness: A Novel Conformal Prediction Difficulty Estimator
by Alexis Bose, Jonathan Ethier, Paul Guinand (Alexis Bose, Jonathan Ethier, Paul Guinand, 2024) [code](https://arxiv.org/src/2410.19077v1/anc/cp_mm_targ_strg.tar.xz see arXiv for more details)
Neural networks pipeline for quality management in IVF laboratory
by Sergei Sergeev, Iuliia Diakova, Lasha Nadirashvili (Georgian-German Reproductive Center, Tbilisi, Georgia; IVF, IVF and Genetic Center, Moscow, Russian Federation, IVF, ART-IVF Clinic, Moscow, Russian Federation)
Semiparametric conformal prediction
by Ji Won Park, Robert Tibshirani, Kyunghyun Cho (Genentech, Stanford, 2024)
Strategic Conformal Prediction
by Daniel Csillag, Claudio José Struchiner, Guilherme (School of Applied Mathematics Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Brazil, 2024)
Uncertainty measurement for complex event prediction in safety-critical systems
by Maria J. P. Peixoto, Akramul Azim (Ontario Tech University)
Conformal-in-the-Loop for Learning with Imbalanced Noisy Data
by John Brandon Graham-Knight, Jamil Fayyad, Nourhan Bayasi, Patricia Lasserre, Homayoun Najjaran (University of British Columbia, University of Victoria, University of British Columbia, Canada) code
Reliable Central Nervous System Tumor Differentiation on MRI Images with Deep Neural Networks and Conformal Prediction
bu Luis Balderas, María Moreno de Castro, Miguel Lastra, Jose P. Martínez, Francisco J. Pérez, Antonio Laínez, Antonio Arauzo-Azofra5 and José M. Benítez (University of Granada, Hospital Universitario “Virgen de las Nieves”, Granada; Instituto Biosanitario de Granada, University of Córdoba, Spain)
Multi-model Ensemble Conformal Prediction in Dynamic Environments
by Erfan Hajihashemi, Yanning Shen(University of California, Irvine)
Confidence-Aware Deep Learning for Load Plan Adjustments in the Parcel Service Industry
by Thomas Bruys, Reza Zandehshahvar, Amira Hijazi, Pascal Van Hentenryck (Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, USA, 2024)
Predictive Inference With Fast Feature Conformal Prediction
by Zihao Tang, Boyuan Wang, Chuan Wen, Jiaye Teng (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Tiangong University, 2024) code
Spatial Conformal Inference through Localized Quantile Regression
by Hanyang Jiang, Yao Xie (2024)
GeoConformal prediction: a model-agnostic framework of measuring the uncertainty of spatial prediction
by Xiayin Loua, Peng Luob, Liqiu Menga (Technical University of Munich, Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Uncertainty quantification for improving radiomic-based models in radiation pneumonitis prediction
by Chanon Puttanawarut, Romen Samuel Wabina, Nat Sirirutbunkajorn (Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand, 2024)
Adaptive Conformal Inference by Betting
by Aleksandr Podkopaev, Darren Xu, Kuang-chih Lee (Wallmart Global Tech, 2024) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Enhancing Trustworthiness of Graph Neural Networks with Rank-Based Conformal Training
by Ting Wang, Zhixin Zhou, Rui Luo (City University of Hong Kong, Alpha Benito Research, Los Angeles, USA, 2025) code
Selection from Hierarchical Data with Conformal e-values
by Yonghoon Lee, Zhimei Ren (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, 2025)
Using Monte Carlo conformal prediction to evaluate the uncertainty of deep learning soil spectral models
by Yin-Chung Huang, José Padarian, Budiman Minasny, and Alex B. McBratney (The University of Sydney,2025)
Learning Robot Safety from Sparse Human Feedback using Conformal Prediction
by (Aaron O. Feldman, Joseph A. Vincent, Maximilian Adang, Jun En Low, and Mac Schwager, Stanford 2025) project code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Uncertainty Guarantees on Automated Precision Weeding using Conformal Prediction
by Paul Melki, Lionel Bombrun, Boubacar Diallo, Jérôme Dias, Jean-Pierre da Costa (Univ. Bordeaux, EXXACT Robotics, Bordeaux Sciences Agro,2025).
Conformal Prediction Sets with Improved Conditional Coverage using Trust Scores
by Jivat Neet Kaur, Michael I. Jordan, Ahmed Alaa (University of California, Berkeley, Inria, Paris, 2025)
Uncertainty Estimation for Path Loss and Radio Metric Models
by Alexis Bose, Jonathan Ethier, Ryan G. Dempsey, Yifeng Qiu, (Communications Research Centre Canada (CRC), Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, 2025)
Conformal Generative Modeling with Improved Sample Efficiency through Sequential Greedy Filtering
by Klaus-Rudolf Kladny, Bernhard Schölkopf, Michael Muehlebach (Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems, Tübingen, Germany, 2025).
Estimating the Conformal Prediction Threshold from Noisy Labels
by Coby Penso, Jacob Goldberger, Ethan Fetaya, 2025)
Robust Online Conformal Prediction under Uniform Label Noise
by Huajun Xi, Kangdao Liu, Hao Zeng, Wenguang Sun, Hongxin Wei (Southern University of Science and Technology, University of Macau, Zhejiang University. China, 2025).
Error-quantified Conformal Inference for Time Series
by Junxi Wu, Dongjian Hu, Yajie Bao, Shu-Tao Xia, Changliang Zou (Nankai University, Tsinghua University, China, 2025) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥code
Conformal Predictions for Longitudinal Data
code by Devesh Batra, Salvatore Mercuri, Raad Khraishi (Data Science & Innovation, NatWest Group, Institute of Finance and Technology, UCL, London, United Kingdom, 2023).
Prediction Sets and Conformal Inference with Censored Outcomes
by Weiguang Liu, Áureo de Paula, Elie Tamer (UCL, Harvard, 2025).
Generalized Venn and Venn-Abers Calibration with Applications in Conformal Prediction
by Lars van der Laan, Ahmed Alaa (University of Washington, Berkekey, 2025).
Multivariate Conformal Prediction using Optimal Transport
by Michal Klein, Louis Bethune, Eugene Ndiaye, Marco Cuturi (Apple Research, 2025).
Wasserstein-regularized Conformal Prediction under General Distribution Shift
by Rui Xu, Chao Chen, Yue Sun, Parvathinathan Venkitasubramaniam, Sihong Xie (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), Harbin Institute of Technology, Lehigh University, 2025) code
Conformalized Time Series with Semantic Features
by Baiting Chen, Zhimei Ren, Lu Cheng (2024) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Language Models Can Predict Their Own Behavior
by Dhananjay Ashok, Jonathan May (2025)
Relational Conformal Prediction for Correlated Time Series
by Andrea Cini, Alexander Jenkins, Danilo Mandic, Cesare Alippi, Filippo Maria Bianchi (2025) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Improved Online Conformal Prediction via Strongly Adaptive Online Learning
Aadyot Bhatnagar, Dylan J. Foster, Sivaraman Balakrishnan, Aaditya Ramdas, 2023.
Conformal Prediction Under Covariate Shift
Aaditya Ramdas, Ryan Tibshirani, 2015.
Conformalized Quantile Regression
Yaniv Romano, Evan Patterson, Emmanuel J. Candès, (Standord, 2019).
Can We Detect Failures Without Failure Data? Uncertainty-Aware Runtime Failure Detection for Imitation Learning Policies
website by Chen Xu, Tony Khuong Nguyen, Emma Dixon, Christopher Rodriguez, Patrick Miller, Robert Lee, Paarth Shah, Rares Andrei Ambrus, Haruki Nishimura, Masha Itkina (Toyota Research Institute, Woven by Toyota 2025) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Forecasting Extreme Temperatures in Siberia Using Supervised Learning and Conformal Prediction Regions
by Richard Berk,Amy Braverman (University of Pennsylvania, The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (Caltech)).
Estimating diagnostic uncertainty in artificial intelligence assisted pathology using conformal prediction
by Henrik Olsson, Kimmo Kartasalo, Nita Mulliqi, Marco Capuccini, Pekka Ruusuvuori, Hemamali Samaratunga, Brett Delahunt, Cecilia Lindskog, Emiel A M Janssen, Anders Blilie, Lars Egevad, Ola Spjuth, Martin Eklund (2022)
Minimum Volume Conformal Sets for Multivariate Regression
by Sacha Braun, Liviu Aolaritei, Michael I. Jordan, Francis Bach (Inria, Berkeley) (2025)
Unifying Different Theories of Conformal Prediction
by Rina Foygel Barber, Ryan J. Tibshiran (University of Chicago, Berkeley, 2025) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
LATTE-MV: Learning to Anticipate Table Tennis Hits from Monocular Videos
by Daniel Etaat, Dvij Kalaria, Nima Rahmanian, Shankar Sastry (Berkeley, 2025) project 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Backward Conformal Prediction
by Etienne Gauthier, Francis Bach, Michael I. Jordan (INRIA, Berkeley, 2025) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Unveil Sources of Uncertainty: Feature Contribution to Conformal Prediction Intervals
by Marouane Il Idrissi, Agathe Fernandes Machadoa, Ewen Gallicc, Arthur Charpentiera (Université du Québec à Montréal, Université Laval, Universite de Montréal, Marseille Univ, 2025) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Synthetic-Powered Predictive Inference
by Meshi Bashari, Roy Maor Lotan, Yonghoon Lee, Edgar Dobriban, Yaniv Romano (Technion, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, 2025).
Extreme Conformal Prediction: Reliable Intervals for High-Impact Events
by Olivier C. Pasche, Henry Lam, Sebastian Engelke (University of Geneva, Columbia University, 2025). 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
STACI: Spatio-Temporal Aleatoric Conformal Inference
by Brandon R. Feng, David Keetae Park, Xihaier Luo, Arantxa Urdangarin, Shinjae Yoo, and Brian J. Reich (North Carolina State University, Brookhaven National Laboratory. 2025) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
JAPAN: Joint Adaptive Prediction Areas with Normalising-Flows
by Eshant English, Christoph Lippert (Hasso Plattner Institute for Digital Engineering, Germany; University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, 2025)
Semi-Supervised Conformal Prediction With Unlabeled Nonconformity Score
by Xuanning Zhou, Hao Zeng, Xiaobo Xia, Bingyi Jing, Hongxin Wei (Southern University of Science and Technology, Harbin Institute of Technology, National University of Singapore, 2025). 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Deep Learning-Based BMD Estimation from Radiographs with Conformal Uncertainty Quantification
by Long Hui, Wai Lok Yeung (2025)
Individualised Counterfactual Examples Using Conformal Prediction Intervals
by James M. Adams, Gesine Reinert, Lukasz Szpruch, Carsten Maple, Andrew Elliott (The Alan Turing Institute, University of Oxford, University Of Edinburgh, University Of Warwick, University, United Kingdom 2025).
CP-Router: An Uncertainty-Aware Router Between LLM and LRM
by Jiayuan Su, Fulin Lin, Zhaopeng Feng, Han Zheng, Teng Wang, Zhenyu Xiao, Xinlong Zhao, Zuozhu Liu, Lu Cheng, Hongwei Wang (Zhejiang University, 2University of Hong Kong, Tsinghua University, Peking University, University of Illinois Chicago, 2025) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
A Modern Theory of Cross-Validation through the Lens of Stability
by Jing Lei, Carnegie Mellon, 2025. 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
WQLCP: Weighted Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Robust Uncertainty Quantification Under Distribution Shifts
by Shadi Alijani, Homayoun Najjaran, University of Victoria, Canada, 2025
Optimal Conformal Prediction under Epistemic Uncertainty
by Alireza Javanmardi, Soroush H. Zargarbashi, Santo M. A. R. Thies, Willem Waegeman, Aleksandar Bojchevski, Eyke Hüllermeier (LMU Munich, MCML, CISPA, University of Cologn, Ghent University, 2025)
Stacked conformal prediction
by Paulo C. Marques F (Insper Institute of Education and Research, Brazil, 2025) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Robust Vision-Based Runway Detection through Conformal Prediction and Conformal mAP
by Alya Zouzou, Léo andéol, Mélanie Ducoffe, Ryma Boumazouza (Airbus, SNCF, IRT Saint Exupery, France, 2025).
Predicate-Conditional Conformalized Answer Sets for Knowledge Graph Embeddings
by Yuqicheng Zhu, Daniel Hernández, Yuan He, Zifeng Ding, Bo Xiong, Evgeny Kharlamov, Steffen Staab (University of Stuttgart, Bosch Center for AI; University of Oxford, University of Cambridge, Stanford University, University of Oslo, University of Southampton, 2025).
Multivariate Latent Recalibration for Conditional Normalizing Flows
by Victor Dheur, Souhaib Ben Taieb (University of Mons, Belgium, Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, 2025).
Conformalized Decision Risk Assessment
by Wenbin Zhou, Agni Orfanoudaki, Shixiang Zhu (Carnegie Mellon University University of Oxford, 2025)
CONSIGN: Conformal Segmentation Informed by Spatial Groupings via Decomposition
by Bruno Viti, Elias Karabelas, Martin Holler (University of Graz, Austria, 2025)
Domain Adaptive Skin Lesion Classification via Conformal Ensemble of Vision Transformers
by Mehran Zoravar, Shadi Alijani, Homayoun Najjaran (University of Victoria, Canada, 2025).
Privacy-Preserving Conformal Prediction Under Local Differential Privacy
by Coby Penso, Bar Mahpud, Jacob Goldberger, Or Sheffet (Bar-Ilan University, 2025).
Improving Coverage in Combined Prediction Sets with Weighted p-values
by Gina Wong, Drew Prinster, Suchi Saria, Rama Chellappa, Anqi Liu (Johns Hopkins University. 2025) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction for Zero-Shot Models
by Julio Silva-Rodríguez, Ismail Ben Ayed, Jose Dolz code
On Temperature Scaling and Conformal Prediction of Deep Classifiers
by Lahav Dabah,Tom Tirer (Bar-Ilan University, 2025) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Gaussian process interpolation with conformal prediction: methods and comparative analysis
by Aurélien Pion, Emmanuel Vazquez (Université Paris-Saclay, Transvalor S.A.,France) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 code
E-Values Expand the Scope of Conformal Prediction
by Etienne Gauthier, Francis Bach, Michael I. Jordan (Inria, Berkeley, 2025) code
One Sample is Enough to Make Conformal Prediction Robust
by Soroush H. Zargarbashi, Mohammad Sadegh Akhondzadeh, Aleksandar Bojchevski (CISPA Helmholtz Center for Information Security, University of Cologne, 2025).
Foundation models for time series forecasting: Application in conformal prediction
by Sami Achour, Yassine Bouher, Duong Nguyen, Nicolas Chesneau (Ekimetrics, Ecole Polytechnique, 2025) code
Uncertainty-Aware Predictive Process Monitoring in Healthcare: Explainable Insights into Probability Calibration for…
by Maxim Majlatow, Fahim Ahmed Shakil, Andreas Emrich and Nijat Mehdiyev (German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI), Saarbrücken, Germany; Saarland University, 66123 Saarbrücken, Germany (2025).
Conformal Bounds on Full-Reference Image Quality for Imaging Inverse Problems
by Jeffrey Wen, Rizwan Ahmad, Philip Schniter (Ohio State University, 2025)
Conformal Prediction Beyond the Seen: A Missing Mass Perspective for Uncertainty Quantification in Generative Models
by Sima Nooran, Shayan Kiyani, George Pappas, and Hamed Hassani (University of Pennsylvania, 2025)
Conformal Prediction for Zero-Shot Models
by Julio Silva-Rodríguez, Ismail Ben Ayed, Jose Dolz (ETS Montreal, 2025)
Conformal Inference for Reliable Single Cell RNA-seq Annotation Open Access
by Marcos López-De-Castro, Alberto García-Galindo, José González-Gomariz, Rubén Armañanzas (University of Navarra) code
Conformal prediction without knowledge of labeled calibration data
by Jonas Flechsig, Maximilian Pilz (Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Mathematics, Ohm University of Applied Sciences Nuremberg, 2025) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Temporal Conformal Prediction (TCP): A Distribution-Free Statistical and Machine Learning Framework for Adaptive Risk…
by Agnideep Aich, Ashit Baran Aich, Dipak C. Jain (University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Louisiana, USA; CEIBS, Shanghai, China) code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Leave-One-Out Stable Conformal Prediction
by Kiljae Lee, Yuan Zhang (The Ohia State University, 2025) code
Predictive inference for time series: why is split conformal effective despite temporal dependence?
by Rina Foygel Barber, Ashwin Pananjady (University of Chicago, Georgia Tech, 2025) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Relevance-Aware Thresholding in Online Conformal Prediction for Time Series
by Théo Dupuy, Binbin Xu, Stéphane Perrey, Jacky Montmain, Abdelhak Imoussaten (IMT Mines Ales, 2025) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Split Conformal Classification with Unsupervised Calibration
by Santiago Mazuelas (BCAM-Basque Center for Applied Mathematics and IKERBASQUE-Basque Foundation for Science, 2025) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Prediction Intervals for Model Averaging
by Zhongjun Qu, Wendun Wang, Xiaomeng Zhang (Boston University, Erasmus University Rotterdam, 2025) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Enhanced Renewable Energy Forecasting using Context-Aware Conformal Prediction
by Alireza Moradi, Mathieu Tanneau, Reza Zandehshahvar, Pascal Van Hentenryck (Georgia Tech, 2025) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformalized Time Series with Semantic Features
Baiting Chen, Zhimei Ren, Lu Cheng (UCLA, University of Pennsylvania, University of Illinois Chicago, 2025) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Non-exchangeable Conformal Prediction with Optimal Transport: Tackling Distribution Shifts with Unlabeled Data
by Alvaro Correia, Christos Louizos (Qualcomm AI Researchl 2025) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal prediction for frequency-severity modeling
by Helton Graziadei, Paulo C. Marques F., Eduardo F. L. de Melo, Rodrigo S. Targino (Getulio Vargas Foundation, Insper Institute of Education and Research, SUSEP - Superintendence of Private Insurance, UERJ - State University of Rio de Janeiro, 2025) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Are you sure? Measuring models bias in content moderation through uncertainty
by Alessandra Urbinati, Mirko Lai, Simona Frenda, Marco Antonio Stranisci(Northeastern University, Heriot-Watt University, aequa-tech, Torino, Italy; Università del Piemonte Orientale, 2025)
Residual Distribution Predictive Systems
by Sam Allen, Enrico Pescara, Johanna Ziegel (KIT, ETH, 2025) code
Conformal Information Pursuit for Interactively Guiding Large Language Models
by Kwan Ho Ryan Chan, Yuyan Ge, Edgar Dobriban, Hamed Hassani, René Vidal (University of Pennsylvania, 2025) #LLM 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction for Hierarchical Data
by Guillaume Principato, Gilles Stoltz, Yvenn Amara-Ouali, Yannig Goude, Bachir Hamrouche, Jean-Michel Poggi (Université Paris-Saclay, EDF R&D, Inria, Laboratoire de mathématiques d’Orsay, France, 2025) code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
CLAPS: Posterior-Aware Conformal Intervals via Last-Layer Laplace
by Dongseok Kim, Hyoungsun Choi, Mohamed Jismy Aashik Rasool, Gisung Oh (Gachon University,2025) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Adaptive Regime-Switching Forecasts with Distribution-Free Uncertainty: Deep Switching State-Space Models Meet…
by Echo Diyun LU, Charles Findling, Marianne Clausel, Alessandro Leite, Wei Gong, Pierric Kersaudy (University of Lorraine, Pernod Ricard, INSA Rouen Normandy, 2025) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Flow-based Conformal Prediction for Multi-dimensional Time Series
by Junghwan Lee, Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2025) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Bandits: Bringing statistical validity and reward efficiency to the small-gap regime
by Simone Cuonzo, Nina Deliu (Sapienza University of Rome, 2025).
Another Fit Bites the Dust: Conformal Prediction as a Calibration Standard for Machine Learning in High-Energy Physics
by Jack Y. Araz, Michael Spannowsky (University College London, City St. George’s - University of London, Durham University) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Colorful Pinball: Density-Weighted Quantile Regression for Conditional Guarantee of Conformal Prediction
by Qianyi Chen, Bo Li (Tsinghua University, China, 2026) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Fast Conformal Prediction using Conditional Interquantile Intervals
by Naixin Guo, Rui Luo, Zhixin Zhou (City University of Hong Kong, Alpha Benito Research,2026) code
Flow-Based Conformal Predictive Distributions
by Trevor Harris (University of Connecticut, 2026)
Quantifying Epistemic Predictive Uncertainty in Conformal Prediction
by Siu Lun Chau, Soroush H. Zargarbashi, Yusuf Sale and Michele Caprio (Nanyang Technological University, Singapore; Helmholtz Center for Information Security, Germany; MU Munich; Center for Machine Learning, Germany; Manchester Centre for AI Fundamentals; The University of Manchester, United…
Analyzing Uncertainty of LLM-as-a-Judge: Interval Evaluations with Conformal Prediction
by (EMNLP 2025) LLM 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
TECP: Token-Entropy Conformal Prediction for LLMs
(MDPI Mathematics, 2025) LLM 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Prune 'n Predict: Optimizing LLM Decision-making with Conformal Prediction
(ICML 2025) LLM 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Selective Conformal Uncertainty in Large Language Models
(ACL 2025) LLM 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction for Natural Language Processing: A Survey
TACL SURVEY NLP 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Language Modeling
LLM 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction for Image Segmentation Using Morphological Prediction Sets
by Luca Mossina and Corentin Friedrich (MICCAI 2025) Springer COMPUTER VISION 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
COMPASS: Robust Feature Conformal Prediction for Medical Segmentation Metrics
(2025) MEDICAL IMAGING 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Full Conformal Adaptation of Medical Vision-Language Models
(2025) VLM MEDICAL 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conditional Conformal Risk Adaptation
(2025) RISK CONTROL SEGMENTATION 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Generalized Conformal Predictive Systems Under Distributional Shifts
by Jef Jonkers, Johanna Ziegel (Ghent University, ETH, 20026)
A Kernel Nonconformity Score for Multivariate Conformal Prediction
by Meyer & Xu, (University of Warwick, 2026)
Conformal Prediction for Time Series Forecasting
Conformal prediction interval for dynamic time-series
by Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2021) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal prediction set for time-series
by Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Time-Series Forecasting
by Kamile Stankeviciu te and Ahmed M. Alaa (2021) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Ensemble Conformalized Quantile Regression for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting
by Vilde Jensen, Filippo Maria Bianchi, Stian Norman Anfinsen (2022). TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformalized Online Learning: Online Calibration Without a Holdout Set
by Shai Feldman, Stephen Bates and Yaniv Romano (2022). TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction with Temporal Quantile Adjustments
by Zhen Lin, Shubhendu Trivedi, Jimeng Sun (2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
CODiT: Conformal Out-of-Distribution Detection in Time- Series Data
by Ramneet Kaur et.al., Unibersity of Pensylvania (2022). Code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
A General Framework For Multi-step Ahead Adaptive Conformal Heteroscedastic Time Series Forecasting
by Martim Sousa, Ana Maria Tomé, University of Aveiro (2022) Code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal prediction interval estimation and applications to day-ahead and intraday power markets
by Christopher Kath, Florian Ziel (2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Robust Gas Demand Forecasting With Conformal Prediction
by Mouhcine Mendil, Luca Mossina, Marc Nabhan, Kevin Pasini (2022)
Copula Conformal Prediction for Multi-step Time Series Forecasting
TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Improved Online Conformal Prediction via Strongly Adaptive Online Learning
by Aadyot Bhatnagar, Huan Wang, Caiming Xiong, Yu Bai (2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction for Time Series with Modern Hopfield Networks
by Andreas Auer, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, Sepp Hochreiter (Johannes Kepler University, Linz, 2023) code blogpost TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Sequential Predictive Conformal Inference for Time Series
by Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech) code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Predictions for longitudinal data
by Devesh Batra, Salvatore Mercuri and Raad Khraishi (Data Science & Innovation - NatWest Group, Institute of Finance and Technology, UCL, UK, 2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 code
Conformal PID Control for Time Series Prediction
by Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Emmanuel J. Candes, Ryan J. Tibshirani (Berkeley/Stanford, NeurIPS2023) code
Distribution-Free Conformal Joint Prediction Regions for Neural Marked Temporal Point Processes
by Victor Dheur, Tanguy Bosser, Rafael Izbicki, Souhaib Ben Taieb (Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Brazil and University of Mons, Belgium, 2024) code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Bellman Conformal Inference: Calibrating Prediction Intervals For Time Series
by Zitong Yang, Emmanuel Candès, Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2024) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 code
Conformal prediction for multi-dimensional time series by ellipsoidal sets
by Chen Xu, Hanyang Jiang, and Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2024) code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformalized predictive simulations for univariate time series
by Thierry Moudiki (2024)
Kernel-based optimally weighted conformal prediction intervals
by Jonghyeok Lee, Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2024) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Transformer Conformal Prediction for Time Series
by Junghwan Lee, Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2024) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 code
Conformal prediction for multi-dimensional time series by ellipsoidal sets
by Chen Xu, Hanyang Jiang, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2024) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal time series decomposition with component-wise exchangeability
by Derck W. E. Prinzhorn, Thijmen Nijdam, Putri A. van der Linden, Alexander Timans (University of Amsterdam, 2024) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 code
Enhancing reliability in prediction intervals using point forecasters: Heteroscedastic Quantile Regression and…
Carlos Sebastiana,Carlos E. Gonzalez-Guillenc, Jesus Juane (Fortia Energıa, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Instituto de Ciencias Matematicas, Madrid) code (2024) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Split Conformal Prediction and Non-Exchangeable Data
by Roberto I. Oliveira, Paulo Orenstein, Thiago Ramos, João Vitor Romano (IMPA, Brazil, 2024) code
ConForME: Multi-horizon conformal time series forecasting
by Aloysio Galvao Lopes, Eric Goubault, Sylvie Putot, Laurent Pautet (Institut Polytechnique de Paris, LTCI, Telecom Paris, 2024) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction for Hierarchical Data
by Guillaume Principato, Gilles Stoltz, Yvenn Amara-Ouali, Yannig Goude, Bachir Hamrouche, Jean-Michel Poggi (Université Paris-Saclay, EDF R&D, Inria, Laboratoire de mathématiques d’Orsay, France, 2025) code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Neural Conformal Control for Time Series Forecasting
by Ruipu Li, Alexander Rodrıguez (University of Michigan, 2024) code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Adaptive Conformal Inference by Betting
by Aleksandr Podkopaev, Darren Xu, Kuang-chih Lee (Wallmart Global Tech, 2024) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Error-quantified Conformal Inference for Time Series
by Junxi Wu, Dongjian Hu, Yajie Bao, Shu-Tao Xia, Changliang Zou (Nankai University, Tsinghua University, China, 2025) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥code
Conformalized Time Series with Semantic Features
by Baiting Chen, Zhimei Ren, Lu Cheng (2024) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Relational Conformal Prediction for Correlated Time Series
by Andrea Cini, Alexander Jenkins, Danilo Mandic, Cesare Alippi, Filippo Maria Bianchi (2025) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Dual-Splitting Conformal Prediction for Multi-Step Time Series Forecasting
by Qingdi Yu, Zhiwei Cao, Ruihang Wang, Zhen Yang, Lijun Deng, Min Hu, Yong Luo, Xin Zhou, (2025) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Flow-based Conformal Prediction for Multi-dimensional Time Series
by Junghwan Lee, Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2025) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Feature Fitted Online Conformal Prediction for Deep Time Series Forecasting Model
by Xiannan Huang, Shuhan Qiu (Tongji University, 2025) code
STACI: Spatio-Temporal Aleatoric Conformal Inference
by Brandon R. Feng, David Keetae Park, Xihaier Luo, Arantxa Urdangarin, Shinjae Yoo, and Brian J. Reich (North Carolina State University, Brookhaven National Laboratory. 2025) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Foundation models for time series forecasting: Application in conformal prediction
by Sami Achour, Yassine Bouher, Duong Nguyen, Nicolas Chesneau (Ekimetrics, Ecole Polytechnique, 2025) code
Error-quantified Conformal Inference for Time Series
code ICLR 2025 paper by Junxi Wu, Dongjian Hu, Yajie Bao, Shu-Tao Xia, , Changliang Zou (Nankai University, Tsinghua University)
Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Time-Series Prediction
by Jonghyeok Lee, Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2025).
Temporal Conformal Prediction (TCP): A Distribution-Free Statistical and Machine Learning Framework for Adaptive Risk…
by Agnideep Aich, Ashit Baran Aich, Dipak C. Jain (University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Louisiana, USA; CEIBS, Shanghai, China) code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Predictive inference for time series: why is split conformal effective despite temporal dependence?
by Rina Foygel Barber, Ashwin Pananjady (University of Chicago, Georgia Tech, 2025) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Relevance-Aware Thresholding in Online Conformal Prediction for Time Series
by Théo Dupuy, Binbin Xu, Stéphane Perrey, Jacky Montmain, Abdelhak Imoussaten (IMT Mines Ales, 2025) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Enhanced Renewable Energy Forecasting using Context-Aware Conformal Prediction
by Alireza Moradi, Mathieu Tanneau, Reza Zandehshahvar, Pascal Van Hentenryck (Georgia Tech, 2025) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformalized Time Series with Semantic Features
Baiting Chen, Zhimei Ren, Lu Cheng (UCLA, University of Pennsylvania, University of Illinois Chicago, 2025) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Forecasting Melting Points in Svalbard, Norway Using Quantile Gradient Boosting and Adaptive Conformal Prediction Region
by Richard Berk (University of Pennsylvania, 2025)
Adaptive Regime-Switching Forecasts with Distribution-Free Uncertainty: Deep Switching State-Space Models Meet…
by Echo Diyun LU, Charles Findling, Marianne Clausel, Alessandro Leite, Wei Gong, Pierric Kersaudy (University of Lorraine, Pernod Ricard, INSA Rouen Normandy, 2025) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction for Time-series Forecasting with Change Points
by Sophia Sun, Rose Yu (University of California, San Diego, 2025) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Optimal training-conditional regret for online conformal prediction
by Jiadong Liang, Zhimei Ren, Yuxin Chen (University of Pennsylvania, 2026) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction for Anomaly Detection
Testing Exchangeability On-Line
by Vladimir Vovk, Ilia Nouretdinov, Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2023)
Plug-in martingales for testing exchangeability on-line
by Valentina Fedorova, Alex Gammerman, Ilia Nouretdinov, Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, ICML 2012) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformalized density- and distance-based anomaly detection in time-series data
by Evgeny Burnaev, Vladislav Ishimtsev (2016)
Conformal prediction for trustworthy detection of railway signals
by Léo Andéol, Thomas Fel, Flornce de Grancey, Luca Mossina (Institut de Mathématiques de Toulouse, SNCF,Brown University,Thales, AVS France, IRT Saint Exupéry, Toulouse; France/USA 2024)
Detecting Railway Track Irregularities Using Conformal Prediction
by Andreas Plesner, Allan P. Engsig-Karup, Hans True (ETH Zurich, Technical University of Denmark) (2024)
CoPAL: Conformal Prediction in Active Learning An Algorithm for Enhancing Remaining Useful Life Estimation in…
by Zahra Kharazian, Tony Lindgren, Sindri Magnusson, Henrik Boström (Stockholm University, KTH, 2024)
Inductive conformal anomaly detection for sequential detection of anomalous sub-trajectories
by Rikkard Laxhammar nd Goran Falkman (2013)
Conformal Anomaly Detection
PhD dissertation by Rikkard Laxhammar (University of Skovde, 2012)
PhD Theses on Conformal Prediction
Machine Learning for Probabilistic Prediction
, PhD Thesis, Valery Manokhin (Royal Holloway, UK, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (over 6K reads on Researchgate alone)
Conformal and Venn Predictors for large, imbalanced and sparse chemoinformatics data
, PhD Thesis, Paolo Toccaceli (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021)
Competitive online algorithms for probabilistic prediction
, PhD Thesis, Raisa Dzhamtyrova (Royal Holloway, UK, 2020)
Conformal Prediction and Testing under On-line Compression Models
, PhD Thesis, Valentina Fedorova (Royal Holloway, UK, 2014) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Adaptive Online Learning
, PhD Thesis, Dmitry Adamskiy (Royal Holloway, UK, 2013)
Black-box Security Measuring Black-box Information Leakage via Machine Learning
, PhD Thesis, Giovanni Cherubin (Royal Holloway, UK, 2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Small and Large Scale Probabilistic Classifiers with Guarantees of Validity
, PhD Thesis, Ivan Petej (Royal Holloway, UK, 2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Confidence and Venn Machines and Their Applications to Proteomics
by Devetyarov, Dmitry (Royal Holloway, UK, 2019)
Conformal Anomaly Detection
PhD dissertation by Rikkard Laxhammar (University of Skovde, 2012)
Inductive Confidence Machine for Pattern Recognition - is it the next step towards AI
by David Surkov (Royal Holloway, UK, 2004)
Distribution Free Prediction Intervals for Multiple Functional Regression
by Ryan Kelly (University of Pittsburgh, 2020).
Probabilistic Load Forecasting with Deep Conformalized Quantile Regression
by Vilde Jensen (Artcic University of Norway, 2021)
Model-free methods for multiple testing and predictive inference
, PhD Thesis, Zhimei Ren (Stanford, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Comparison of Support Vector Machines and Deep Learning For QSAR with Conformal Prediction
by Deligianni Maria, MSc thesis, Universit of Uppsala (2022)
Predictive Maintenance with Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction: A Commercial Case Study
by James Gammerman (2022)
Risk-Sensitive Decision-Making for Autonomous-Driving
by Hardy Hasan (University of Uppsala, 2022)
Distribution-Free Finite-Sample Guarantees and Split Conformal Prediction
, MSc thesis by Roel Hulsman, University of Oxford (2022)
Coreset-based Protocols for Machine Learning Classification
, PhD thesis by Nery Riquelme Granada (Royal Holloway, University of London, 2022)
Conformal survival predictions at a user-controlled time point
by Jelle Van Miltenburg (KTH ROYAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, 2018)
Reliable Machine Learning with ConformalPrediction: A Review with Contributions
by Martim Sousa (2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Nonconformity Measures and Ensemble Strategies - An Analysis of Conformal Predictor Efficiency and Validity
, PhD thesis by Henrik Linusson (Stockholm University, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Determine and explain confidence in predicting violations on inland ships in the Netherlands
by Bakker, Paul (TU Delft, 2020)
Machine Learning with Conformal Prediction for Predictive Maintenance tasks in Industry 4.0
by Shuzhou Liu, Mulahuko Mpova (Jönköping University, 2023).
Conformal Prediction Methods in Finance
by Finance João Vitor Romano (Instituto de Matemática Pura e Aplicada, Brazil, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
An Active Learning Approach for Reject Inference in Credit Scoring using Conformal Prediction Intervals on Real and…
by Maximilian Suliga (Humboldt University of Berlin, 2023)
Confidence Predictions in Pharmaceutical Sciences
by Staffan Arvidsson McShane (Uppsala University, Sweden, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conform With the Wind Processing short-term ensemble forecasts with conformal based methods for probabilistic…
, MSc thesis by Simon Althoff (Lund University, 2023)
Trustworthy explanations: Improved decision support through well-calibrated uncertainty quantification
, PhD thesis by Helena Löfström (Jönköping Universitu, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Data Augmentation and Conformal Prediction
, MSc thesis by Helen Lu (MIT, 2023)
Conformal prediction and copula based methods for profile monitioring
, MSc Thesis by Niccolo' Donadini (Politecnico di Milano, 2023)
A New Perspective on Uncertainty Techniques in Regression
, MSc thesis by Alexander Krauck (Johannes Kepler University of Linz, 2024)
Robust Conformal Prediction Using Privileged Information
by Shai Feldman, Yaniv Romano (2024)
CONFINE: Conformal Prediction for Interpretable Neural Networks
by Linhui Huang, Sayeri Lala, Niraj K. Jha (Princeton University, 2024)
Conformal prediction and beyond
, MSc thesis by Gerard CASTRO CASTILLO (University of Barcelona, 2024) code
Conformal prediction and uncertainty quantification in recommender systems
MSc thesis by Roberto Alvarado Chamatrin (University of Barcelona, 2024) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Machine learning-based anti-cancer drug treatment optimization
PhD thesis by Kerstin Lenhof (Saarland University, 2024)
Towards Uncertainty-Aware Hardware Trojan Detection
MSc thesis by Rahul Vishwakarma (2024)
A Diagnostic and Prescriptive Conformal Prediction Framework: Applied to Sleep Disorders
MSc thesis by Faduma Khalif (MIT, 2024)
Reliable Time Series Forecasting Interval Forecasting for Time Series with Machine Learning Models and EnbPI
, Independent thesis Advanced level, Wang, Xuanq (KTH,2024)
Conformal Prediction in Limit Order Books: Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification of DeepLOB
by Fabio Rossi, Imperial College (2024)
On uncertainty in natural language processing
by Dennis Ulmer, Uiversity of Copenhagen (2024)
Improving Uncertainty Quantification in Regression Problems through Conformal Training
by Johannes Vallikivi, Cambridge (2023)
Automatic Adaptive Conformal Inference for Time Series
by Artem Makhin (Skoltech, 2024).
Conformal Prediction: A Review and an Application in Deep Learning-based Image Classification
by Tianyu Wang (McGill University, 2024)
Assumption-Lean Approaches to Modern Statistical Inference
by Rohan Hore (University of Chicago, 2025).
Uncertainty Quantification in Predicting Kinase Inhibitor Families: A Conformal Prediction Approach on Cell Painting…
by Sofia Hernández Valenzuela (Uppsala University, 2025)
Exploring Conformal Prediction for Long Memory Processes
MSc thesis by Alessandra Campanella (Sapienza University Rome, 2025)
Principles of uncertainty in probabilistic machine learning
PhD Thesis by Charlie Marx (Stanford, 2025).
Uncertainty Estimation in Deep Neural Networks: A Comparative Study of Bayesian Approximation and Conformal Prediction
MSc thesis by Ruijs, Sanne and Kosiakova, Alina (University of Lund, Sweden, 2025).
Conformal Prediction of Individual Treatment Effects under Unmeasured Confounding
MSc thesis by Jaeho Jeong (Seoul National University, 2025).
Conformal Prediction Events and Workshops
Conferences Featuring Conformal Prediction
Conformal Prediction Researchers
valeriy.ai
author's website with research, papers, and updates.
Vladimir Vovk
, Royal Holloway, United Kingdom
Alexander Gammerman
, Royal Holloway, United Kingdom
Glenn Shafer
, Rutgers University, USA
Emmanuel Candès
, Stanford, USA
Ryan Tibshiriani
, Carnegie Mellon, USA
Yaniv Romano
, Technion—Israel Institute of Technology
Michael I. Jordan
, Berkeley, USA
Jitendra Malik
, Berkeley, USA
Anastasios Angelopoulos
, Berkeley, USA
Lihua Lei
, Stanford, USA
Henrik Boström
, KTH, Sweden
Ulf Johansson
, Jönköping University, Sweden
Henrik Linusson
, University of Borås, Sweden
Harris Papadopoulos
, Frederick University, Cyprus
Vladimir V'yugin
, Institute for Information Transmission Problems (IITP), Russia
Evgeny Burnaev
, Skoltech, Russia
Aaditya Ramdas
, Carnegie Mellon, USA
Benjamin LeRoy
, Carnegie Mellon, USA
Ulf Norinder
, Stockholm University, Sweden
Ola Spjuth
, Uppsala University, Sweden
Ilia Nouretdinov
, Royal Holloway, United Kingdom
Yao Xie
, Georgia Institute of Technology
Zhimeo Ren
, University of Chicago
Rafael Izbicki
, Federal University of São Carlos (UFSCar) Brazil
Rina Foygel Barber
University of Chicago
Simone Vantini
MOX - Department of Mathematics, Politecnico di Milano
Conformal Prediction Websites
valeriy.ai
author's website with research, papers, and updates.
Conformal Prediction - Prediction with guaranteed performance
Royal Holloway, United Kingdom
A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification
by Anastasios N. Angelopoulos 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Reliable Predictive Inference
by Yaniv Romano 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction on Twitter / X
Title: What Can Conformal Inference Offer to Statistics?
by Lihua Lei, Stanford, 2022
Conformalized survival analysis
by Lihua Lei, Stanford, 2021
Conformal Risk Control
by Anastasious Angelopolous, Berkeley, 2022
Stable Conformal Prediction Sets
by Eugene Ndiaye (Georgia Tech, 2022)
How to correctly, yet efficiently model the uncertainty on predictions
by Nico Wolf (2022)
Top 10 Github libraries for Conformal Prediction
by Valeriy Manokhin (2022)
Robots That Ask For Help
by Allen Z. Ren (2023) 🍾🍾🍾🍾🍾🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
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